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The Labour Module in a dynamic, regional CGE model

Author

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  • Glyn Wittwer
  • Janine Dixon

Abstract

The NSW Department of Industry commissioned CGE model development in order to enhance regional labour market analysis. The Centre of Policy Studies has developed VUEF (Victoria University Employment Forecasting), a dynamic model used in labour market forecasting. VUEF is a national dynamic model. It includes regional detail, but this is limited to a top-down module in which regions do not have separate labour markets and production functions. Rather, it relies on exogenous regional shares to distribute national results to each region. Dynamic TERM (The Enormous Regional Model), with multi-regional bottom-up representation, has been used for policy analysis at the regional level at the Centre of Policy Studies since 2003. Until now, it has not been used to examine occupational or skills composition in the labour market. We have adapted the recently developed VUEF labour market module for use in dynamic TERM. This paper elaborates on the regional labour market module, with minimal details of the linkages with the core TERM model. The labour market module has been developed as a standalone model for training purposes. In practice, it is likely that the fully dynamic TERM model with the labour market module will be used for analysis. This paper also includes some guidance concerning the use of RunDynam.

Suggested Citation

  • Glyn Wittwer & Janine Dixon, 2015. "The Labour Module in a dynamic, regional CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-257, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-257
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G.A.Meagher & Felicity Pang, 2011. "Labour Market Forecasting, Reliability and Workforce Development," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-225, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2003. "A New Specification of Labour Supply in the MONASH Model with an Illustrative Application," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(1), pages 22-40, March.
    3. James Andrew Giesecke & Nhi Hoang Tran & Gerald Anthony Meagher & Felicity Pang, 2015. "A decomposition approach to labour market forecasting," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 243-270, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pant, Hom & Warr, Peter, 2016. "Modelling Involuntary Unemployment in Applied GE Models," Conference papers 332799, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    skills shortages; occupational forecasting; regional modelling; RunDynam;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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