IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/japsta/v42y2015i5p921-937.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Statistical models for disaggregation and reaggregation of natural gas consumption data

Author

Listed:
  • M. Brabec
  • O. Kon�r
  • M. Malý
  • I. Kasanický
  • E. Pelik�n

Abstract

In this paper, we present a unified framework for natural gas consumption modeling and forecasting. This consists of models of GAM class and their nonlinear extension, tailored for easy estimation, aggregation and treatment of the delayed relationship between temperature and consumption. Since the consumption data for households and small commercial customers are routinely available in many countries only as long-term sum meter readings, their disaggregation and possibly reaggregation to different time intervals is necessary for a variety of purposes. We show some examples of specific models based on the presented framework and then we demonstrate their use in practice, especially for the disaggregation and reaggregation tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Brabec & O. Kon�r & M. Malý & I. Kasanický & E. Pelik�n, 2015. "Statistical models for disaggregation and reaggregation of natural gas consumption data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 921-937, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:5:p:921-937
    DOI: 10.1080/02664763.2014.993365
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/02664763.2014.993365
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/02664763.2014.993365?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilbert E. Metcalf & Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Measuring The Energy Savings From Home Improvement Investments: Evidence From Monthly Billing Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 516-528, August.
    2. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, October.
    3. Marek Brabec & Ondřej Konár & Marek Malý & Emil Pelikán & Jiří Vondráček, 2009. "A statistical model for natural gas standardized load profiles," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 58(1), pages 123-139, February.
    4. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, October.
    5. Riddell, A. G. & Manson, K., 1996. "Parametrisation of domestic load profiles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 199-210, July.
    6. Potocnik, Primoz & Thaler, Marko & Govekar, Edvard & Grabec, Igor & Poredos, Alojz, 2007. "Forecasting risks of natural gas consumption in Slovenia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4271-4282, August.
    7. repec:bla:ecorec:v:72:y:1996:i:219:p:319-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, October.
    9. Liu, Lon-Mu & Lin, Maw-Wen, 1991. "Forecasting residential consumption of natural gas using monthly and quarterly time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 3-16, May.
    10. Sanchez-Ubeda, Eugenio Fco. & Berzosa, Ana, 2007. "Modeling and forecasting industrial end-use natural gas consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 710-742, July.
    11. Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sarah E. Heaps & Malcolm Farrow & Kevin J. Wilson, 2020. "Identifying the effect of public holidays on daily demand for gas," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(2), pages 471-492, February.
    2. Paulescu, Marius & Brabec, Marek & Boata, Remus & Badescu, Viorel, 2017. "Structured, physically inspired (gray box) models versus black box modeling for forecasting the output power of photovoltaic plants," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 792-802.
    3. Askari, S. & Montazerin, N. & Fazel Zarandi, M.H., 2016. "Gas networks simulation from disaggregation of low frequency nodal gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1286-1298.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jean Gaston Tamba & Salom Ndjakomo Essiane & Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Francis Djanna Koffi & Jean Luc Nsouand l & Bozidar Soldo & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 216-249.
    2. Ahmet Goncu & Mehmet Oguz Karahan & Tolga Umut Kuzubas, 2019. "Forecasting Daily Residential Natural Gas Consumption: A Dynamic Temperature Modelling Approach," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.
    4. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    5. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    6. Potočnik, Primož & Soldo, Božidar & Šimunović, Goran & Šarić, Tomislav & Jeromen, Andrej & Govekar, Edvard, 2014. "Comparison of static and adaptive models for short-term residential natural gas forecasting in Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 94-103.
    7. Marek Brabec & Ondřej Konár & Marek Malý & Emil Pelikán & Jiří Vondráček, 2009. "A statistical model for natural gas standardized load profiles," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 58(1), pages 123-139, February.
    8. Serli Kiremitciyan & Ahmet Goncu & Tolga Umut Kuzubas, 2014. "A Comparison of Stochastic Models of Natural Gas Consumption," Working Papers 2014/10, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    9. Kovačič, Miha & Šarler, Božidar, 2014. "Genetic programming prediction of the natural gas consumption in a steel plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 273-284.
    10. Alexander Dokumentov & Rob J. Hyndman, 2015. "STR: A Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Procedure Based on Regression," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    11. Sen, Doruk & Günay, M. Erdem & Tunç, K.M. Murat, 2019. "Forecasting annual natural gas consumption using socio-economic indicators for making future policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1106-1118.
    12. Ergun Yukseltan & Ahmet Yucekaya & Ayse Humeyra Bilge & Esra Agca Aktunc, 2020. "Forecasting Models for Daily Natural Gas Consumption Considering Periodic Variations and Demand Segregation," Papers 2003.13385, arXiv.org.
    13. Alexander Dokumentov & Rob J. Hyndman, 2022. "STR: Seasonal-Trend Decomposition Using Regression," INFORMS Joural on Data Science, INFORMS, vol. 1(1), pages 50-62, April.
    14. Mustafa Akpinar & Nejat Yumusak, 2016. "Year Ahead Demand Forecast of City Natural Gas Using Seasonal Time Series Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    15. Mustafa Akpinar & M. Fatih Adak & Nejat Yumusak, 2017. "Day-Ahead Natural Gas Demand Forecasting Using Optimized ABC-Based Neural Network with Sliding Window Technique: The Case Study of Regional Basis in Turkey," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Otto-Sobotka, Fabian & Salvati, Nicola & Ranalli, Maria Giovanna & Kneib, Thomas, 2019. "Adaptive semiparametric M-quantile regression," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 116-129.
    17. Mestekemper, Thomas & Windmann, Michael & Kauermann, Göran, 2010. "Functional hourly forecasting of water temperature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 684-699, October.
    18. Naschold, Felix, 2012. "“The Poor Stay Poor”: Household Asset Poverty Traps in Rural Semi-Arid India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 2033-2043.
    19. Arthur Charpentier & Emmanuel Flachaire & Antoine Ly, 2017. "Econom\'etrie et Machine Learning," Papers 1708.06992, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2018.
    20. Hyunju Son & Youyi Fong, 2021. "Fast grid search and bootstrap‐based inference for continuous two‐phase polynomial regression models," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:42:y:2015:i:5:p:921-937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CJAS20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.