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Building new roads really does create extra traffic: a response to Prakash et al

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  • Phil Goodwin
  • Robert Noland

Abstract

A recent article by Prakash et al. (Applied Economics, 33, 1579-85, 2001) asserted that induced travel effects do not occur. This paper is criticized on several grounds. It disregards much of the recent work in this area that has empirically estimated induced travel relationships. The models specified are inappropriate for properly addressing this question, both in their use of road expenditure data (based on a misunderstanding of how this may relate to traffic growth) and specification of a model that does not account for other variables that generally have a large effect on traffic growth (notably population and income growth). The evidence in the literature is summarized and an analysis of UK road expenditure data shows that expenditure is not a good measure of actual road capacity that is built.

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  • Phil Goodwin & Robert Noland, 2003. "Building new roads really does create extra traffic: a response to Prakash et al," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1451-1457.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:13:p:1451-1457
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684032000089872
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
    2. Robert Noland & William Cowart, 2000. "Analysis of Metropolitan Highway Capacity and the growth in vehicle miles of travel," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 363-390, December.
    3. A. B. Prakash & E. H. D'A. Oliver & K. Balcombe, 2001. "Does building new roads really create extra traffic? Some new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(12), pages 1579-1585.
    4. Daniel J. Graham & Stephen Glaister, 2002. "The Demand for Automobile Fuel: A Survey of Elasticities," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(1), pages 1-25, January.
    5. Robert Cervero & Mark Hansen, 2002. "Induced Travel Demand and Induced Road Investment: A Simultaneous Equation Analysis," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 36(3), pages 469-490, September.
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    Cited by:

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    5. Bucsky, Péter & Juhász, Mattias, 2022. "Long-term evidence on induced traffic: A case study on the relationship between road traffic and capacity of Budapest bridges," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 244-257.
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    8. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Lundberg, Mattias, 2014. "An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-148.
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    11. Lian, Jon Inge, 2008. "The Oslo and Bergen toll rings and road-building investment – Effect on traffic development and congestion," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 174-181.
    12. Tønnesen, Anders, 2015. "Policy packages and state engagement: Comparing car-use reduction policy in two Norwegian cities," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 89-98.
    13. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Gustavo A., 2012. "Induced road traffic in Spanish regions: A dynamic panel data model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 435-445.
    14. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter, 2014. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 82-91.
    15. Concas, Sisinnio, 2012. "Highway capital expenditures and induced vehicle travel," MPRA Paper 40757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Aug 2012.
    16. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, Daniel & Lundberg , Mattias, 2013. "An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:34, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).

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