IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/retrec/v47y2014icp82-91.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Land-use impacts in transport appraisal

Author

Listed:
  • Börjesson, Maria
  • Jonsson, R. Daniel
  • Berglund, Svante
  • Almström, Peter

Abstract

Standard cost-benefit analysis (CBA) does not take into account induced demand due to relocation triggered by infrastructure investments. Using an integrated transport and land-use model calibrated for the Stockholm region, we explore whether this has any significant impact on the CBA outcome, and in particular on the relative ranking of rail and road investments. Our results indicate that induced demand has a larger impact on the benefit of rail investments than on the benefit of road investments. The effect on the relative ranking is still limited for two reasons. First, the number of houses that are built over 20–30 years is limited in comparison to the size of the existing housing stock. Second, the location of most of the new houses is not affected by any single infrastructure investment, since the latter has a marginal effect on total accessibility in a city with a mature transport system. A second aim of this paper is to investigate the robustness of the relative CBA ranking of rail and road investments, with respect to the planning policy in the region 25 years ahead. While the results suggest that this ranking is surprisingly robust, there is a tendency that the net benefit of rail investments is more sensitive to the future planning policy than road investments. Our results also underscore that the future land-use planning in the region in general has a considerably stronger impact on accessibility and car use than individual road or rail investments have.

Suggested Citation

  • Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström, Peter, 2014. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 82-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:82-91
    DOI: 10.1016/j.retrec.2014.09.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0739885914000626
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.retrec.2014.09.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
    2. Francisco Martínez & Claudio Araya, 2000. "Transport and Land-Use Benefits under Location Externalities," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(9), pages 1611-1624, September.
    3. Mackie, Peter & Preston, John, 1998. "Twenty-one sources of error and bias in transport project appraisal," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-7, January.
    4. Noland, Robert B., 2001. "Relationships between highway capacity and induced vehicle travel," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 47-72, January.
    5. Eliasson, Jonas & Börjesson, Maria & van Amelsfort, Dirk & Brundell-Freij, Karin & Engelson, Leonid, 2013. "Accuracy of congestion pricing forecasts," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 34-46.
    6. Gerard Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Stephen Miller & Ronald Plasmeijer & Frank Hofman, 2007. "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 375-395, July.
    7. Tom Worsley, 2011. "The Evolution of London's Crossrail Scheme and the Development of the Department for Transport's Economic Appraisal Methods," International Transport Forum Discussion Papers 2011/27, OECD Publishing.
    8. Hansson, Sven Ove, 2007. "Philosophical Problems In Cost–Benefit Analysis," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 163-183, July.
    9. Maria Börjesson & Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2014. "Is CBA Ranking of Transport Investments Robust?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(2), pages 189-204, May.
    10. Rodier, Caroline J. & Johnston, Robert A., 2002. "Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 613-631, August.
    11. Phil Goodwin & Robert Noland, 2003. "Building new roads really does create extra traffic: a response to Prakash et al," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(13), pages 1451-1457.
    12. Yong Zhao & Kara Maria Kockelman, 2002. "The propagation of uncertainty through travel demand models: An exploratory analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 36(1), pages 145-163.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eliasson, Jonas & Savemark, Christian & Franklin, Joel, 2020. "The impact of land use effects in infrastructure appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 262-276.
    2. Chi, Sae & Bunker, Jonathan, 2021. "An Australian perspective on real-life cost-benefit analysis and assessment frameworks for transport infrastructure investments," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson , Daniel & Berglund, Svante & Almström , Peter, 2013. "Land-use impacts in transport appraisal," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:32, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    2. Maria Börjesson & Jonas Eliasson & Mattias Lundberg, 2014. "Is CBA Ranking of Transport Investments Robust?," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(2), pages 189-204, May.
    3. Aguas, Oriana & Bachmann, Chris, 2022. "Assessing the effects of input uncertainties on the outputs of a freight demand model," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    4. Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
    5. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, R. Daniel & Lundberg, Mattias, 2014. "An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 135-148.
    6. Gerard Jong & Andrew Daly & Marits Pieters & Stephen Miller & Ronald Plasmeijer & Frank Hofman, 2007. "Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands," Transportation, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 375-395, July.
    7. Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Erhardt, Gregory D. & Schmitt, David & Chen, Mei & Wachs, Martin, 2021. "Estimating the uncertainty of traffic forecasts from their historical accuracy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 339-349.
    8. David Hartgen, 2013. "Hubris or humility? Accuracy issues for the next 50 years of travel demand modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 40(6), pages 1133-1157, November.
    9. Kangsoo Kim & Jinseog Kim & Hyejin Cho & Donghyung Yook, 2024. "Determining contract conditions in a PPP project among deep uncertainty in future outturn travel demand," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 937-961, June.
    10. Westin, Jonas & de Jong, Gerard & Vierth, Inge & Krüger, Niclas & Karlsson, Rune & Johansson, Magnus, 2015. "Baserunning - analyzing the sensitivity and economies of scale of the Swedish national freight model system using stochastic production-consumption-matrices," Working papers in Transport Economics 2015:10, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI), revised 15 Sep 2016.
    11. Börjesson, Maria & Jonsson, Daniel & Lundberg , Mattias, 2013. "An ex-post CBA for the Stockholm Metro," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:34, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    12. Asplund, Disa & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 195-205.
    13. Concas, Sisinnio, 2012. "Highway capital expenditures and induced vehicle travel," MPRA Paper 40757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Aug 2012.
    14. Niek Mouter & Jan Annema & Bert Wee, 2015. "Managing the insolvable limitations of cost-benefit analysis: results of an interview based study," Transportation, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 277-302, March.
    15. Manzo, Stefano & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2015. "How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model :output A four-stage model case-study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-72.
    16. Sanko, Nobuhiro & Morikawa, Takayuki & Nagamatsu, Yoshitaka, 2013. "Post-project evaluation of travel demand forecasts: Implications from the case of a Japanese railway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 209-218.
    17. Alan T Murray & Ran Wei & Tony H Grubesic, 2014. "An Approach for Examining Alternatives Attributable to Locational Uncertainty," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 41(1), pages 93-109, February.
    18. Bucsky, Péter & Juhász, Mattias, 2022. "Long-term evidence on induced traffic: A case study on the relationship between road traffic and capacity of Budapest bridges," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 244-257.
    19. Dimitriou, Harry T. & Ward, E. John & Dean, Marco, 2016. "Presenting the case for the application of multi-criteria analysis to mega transport infrastructure project appraisal," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 7-20.
    20. González, Rosa Marina & Marrero, Gustavo A., 2012. "Induced road traffic in Spanish regions: A dynamic panel data model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 435-445.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost-benefit analysis; Transport planning; Land-use planning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:retrec:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:82-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/620614/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.