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A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses: applying a trend--cycle decomposition to unemployment

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  • Johann Fuchs
  • Enzo Weber

Abstract

This article proposes an unobserved components approach to disentangle the influence of unemployment on labour participation into a permanent and a cyclical part, connected to discouragement and added worker effect, respectively. By splitting up the participation effect of changes in the unemployment rate, our analysis differs profoundly from previous studies that present the net of both or only a single effect. The results for Germany confirm that both the discouragement and the added worker effect exist, but different age groups respond differently to permanent and transitory changes in the unemployment rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Johann Fuchs & Enzo Weber, 2013. "A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses: applying a trend--cycle decomposition to unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1374-1378, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:20:y:2013:i:15:p:1374-1378
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.812777
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    13. Benati, Luca, 2001. "Some empirical evidence on the 'discouraged worker' effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 387-395, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Provenzano Sandro, 2017. "The Empirics of Hidden Labor Force Dynamics in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(5), pages 373-406, October.
    2. Deniz Karaoglan & Cagla Okten, 2022. "The effect of parental job loss on youth transition to employment in Turkey," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 36(2), pages 251-275, June.
    3. Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The unemployment invariance hypothesis and the implications of added and discouraged worker effects in Latin America," MPRA Paper 115966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Brigitte Weber & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 33-58, February.
    5. Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2022. "Beyond the added-worker and the discouraged-worker effects: the entitled-worker effect," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2013. "Labour market forecasting : is disaggregation useful?," IAB-Discussion Paper 201314, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Vallizadeh, Ehsan & Muysken, Joan & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2013. "Migration, unemployment, and skill downgrading : a specific-factors approach," IAB-Discussion Paper 201313, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Pauser, Johannes, 2013. "Capital mobility, imperfect labour markets, and the provision of public goods," IAB-Discussion Paper 201309, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Werner, Daniel, 2013. "New insights into the development of regional unemployment disparities," IAB-Discussion Paper 201311, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Emilio Congregado & Ewa Galecka-Burdziak & Antonio A. Golpe & Robert Pater, 2021. "Separating aggregate discouraged and added worker effects: the case of a former transition country," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(3), pages 729-760, September.
    11. Mönnig, Anke & Zika, Gerd & Maier, Tobias, 2013. "Trade and qualification : linking qualification needs to Germany's export flows," IAB-Discussion Paper 201307, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2017. "Forecasting labour supply and population: an integrated stochastic model," IAB-Discussion Paper 201701, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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