IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iab/iabfob/202106.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Neue Schätzungen für die Stille Reserve - erstmalig Anwendung des IAB-Konzepts auf Gesamtdeutschland

Author

Listed:
  • Fuchs, Johann

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Weber, Brigitte

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

Abstract

"This report presents unified estimations of the hidden unemployment for the first time for the whole of Germany by implementing the IAB-approach that was only before applied for West Germany. The fundamental and internationally established hypothesis of the IAB-approach is that the labour participation is influenced by the labour market performance, for example the unemployment rate. Therefore, a regression equation is estimated, with the labour participation rate as the dependent variable and an unemployment indicator as an independent variable. We use labour participation rates by age, gender and nationality, based on the German Microcensus. The estimations are restricted to 15 to 64 years olds. For methodological reasons, the labour participation rates are transformed into logits. For the influence of the labour market indicator, we tested different variables, e.g. the overall unemployment rate, the unemployment rate or women, or the vacancy rate. The labour market indicators are obtained from the statistic of the Federal Employment Agency. Furthermore, the estimations consider several covariates, like wages, retirement age, etc. All in all, regressions for 40 subpopulations were conducted with time series that covers the period 1991 to 2019. The estimations support the thesis of a discouragement effect for each subpopulation, which outperforms any added worker effect. This means labour participation will shrink in case of rising unemployment figures. In order to calculate hidden unemployment rates, and absolute figures of the hidden unemployed, we applied a regional benchmark approach. For each labour market indicator the best figure was identified across the federal states in Germany. The difference of the real figure to this benchmark leads to the hidden unemployment rate. The level of the estimated hidden unemployment is close to former calculations, combined for East and West Germany. Relevant deviations occur only in the first years after the German unification, presumably caused by an extreme increase in East Germany. As many data will not be available separate for East and West, our current approach might be a good, forward-looking base for future estimations. After the Hartz-reforms, hidden unemployment in Germany shrinks from 1.72 million in 2006 to less than 900,000 in 2019. The sex ratio was balanced in the near past. Almost a quarter of the hidden unemployed were non-German, which is far more as their population share." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2021. "Neue Schätzungen für die Stille Reserve - erstmalig Anwendung des IAB-Konzepts auf Gesamtdeutschland," IAB-Forschungsbericht 202106, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabfob:202106
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/forschungsbericht/2021/fb0621.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Armstrong, 1999. "Hidden Male Unemployment in Northern Ireland," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 499-511.
    2. Briscoe, G. & Wilson, R., 1992. "Forecasting economic activity rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 201-217, October.
    3. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2005. "Neuschätzung der Stillen Reserve und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials für Westdeutschland (inkl. Berlin-West)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200515, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Plane, Mathieu & Döpke, Jörg & Chagny, Odile & Schmidt, Rainer, 2001. "Labour supply and labour force participation in Europe: a discussion of some recent developments and projections," Kiel Working Papers 1049, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Enzo Weber, 2015. "The Labour Market in Germany: Reforms, Recession and Robustness," De Economist, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 461-472, December.
    6. Maarten van Ham & Clara H. Mulder & Pieter Hooimeijer, 2001. "Local Underemployment and the Discouraged Worker Effect," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 38(10), pages 1733-1751, September.
    7. Johann Fuchs & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Long-term unemployment and labour force participation: a decomposition of unemployment to test for the discouragement and added worker hypotheses," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(60), pages 5971-5982, December.
    8. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2886 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Joachim Möller & Alisher Aldashev, 2006. "Interregional differences in labor market participation," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 26(1), pages 25-50, March.
    10. Agbola, F. W., 2005. "Integrating Hidden Unemployment in the Measurement of Unemployment in Selected OECD Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).
    11. Johann Fuchs, 2014. "Der Einfluss von Hartz IV auf die westdeutsche Stille Reserve – Ergebnisse auf Basis unterschiedlicher methodischer Ansätze," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 33-48, June.
    12. Liam Lenten, 2000. "The Profile of Labour Force Discouragement in Australia," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 4(1), pages 3-17, March.
    13. Tachibanaki, Toshiaki & Sakurai, Kojiro, 1991. "Labour supply and unemployment in Japan," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1575-1587, December.
    14. Benati, Luca, 2001. "Some empirical evidence on the 'discouraged worker' effect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 387-395, March.
    15. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2005. "Neuschätzung der Stillen Reserve und des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials für Ostdeutschland (einschl. Berlin-Ost)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200518, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Bauer, Anja & Fuchs, Johann & Gartner, Hermann & Hummel, Markus & Hutter, Christian & Wanger, Susanne & Weber, Enzo & Zika, Gerd, 2021. "IAB-Prognose: Arbeitsmarkt auf dem Weg aus der Krise," IAB-Kurzbericht 202106, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    17. Blundell, Richard & Ham, John & Meghir, Costas, 1998. "Unemployment, discouraged workers and female labour supply," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 103-131, June.
    18. Susan Parker & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2004. "The added worker effect over the business cycle: evidence from urban Mexico," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 625-630.
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2886 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Tano, Doki K., 1993. "The added worker effect : A causality test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 111-117.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martina Rengers & Johann Fuchs, 2022. "Stille Reserve in Deutschland: Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede zweier Konzepte [Hidden labour force in Germany: similarities and differences between two concepts]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(3), pages 189-230, December.
    2. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Birgit Weber, 2022. "Demografische Alterung führt zu einem stark sinkenden Erwerbspersonenpotenzial [Demographic Ageing Leads to a Sharply Declining Labour Force Potential]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(2), pages 148-150, February.
    3. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte, 2021. "Projektion des Erwerbspersonenpotenzials bis 2060: Demografische Entwicklung lässt das Arbeitskräfteangebot stark schrumpfen (Projection of the labor force potential up to 2060: Demographic developmen," IAB-Kurzbericht 202125, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johann Fuchs, 2014. "Der Einfluss von Hartz IV auf die westdeutsche Stille Reserve – Ergebnisse auf Basis unterschiedlicher methodischer Ansätze," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(1), pages 33-48, June.
    2. Johann Fuchs & Enzo Weber, 2017. "Long-term unemployment and labour force participation: a decomposition of unemployment to test for the discouragement and added worker hypotheses," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(60), pages 5971-5982, December.
    3. Ángel L. Martín‐Román & Jaime Cuéllar‐Martín & Alfonso Moral, 2020. "Labor supply and the business cycle: The “bandwagon worker effect”," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(6), pages 1607-1642, December.
    4. Jajati Keshari Parida & Shiba Shankar Pattayat & Sher Verick, 2023. "Why is the size of discouraged labour force increasing in India?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 3601-3630, October.
    5. Martina Rengers & Johann Fuchs, 2022. "Stille Reserve in Deutschland: Gemeinsamkeiten und Unterschiede zweier Konzepte [Hidden labour force in Germany: similarities and differences between two concepts]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 16(3), pages 189-230, December.
    6. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Brigitte, 2010. "Umfang und Struktur der westdeutschen Stillen Reserve : Aktualisierte Schätzungen (Extent and structure of the hidden labour force in Western German)," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201011, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Johann Fuchs & Enzo Weber, 2013. "A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses: applying a trend--cycle decomposition to unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1374-1378, October.
    8. Rob Euwals & Marike Knoef & Daniel Vuuren, 2011. "The trend in female labour force participation: what can be expected for the future?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 729-753, May.
    9. Fuchs, Johann & Söhnlein, Doris & Weber, Brigitte & Weber, Enzo, 2016. "Ein integriertes Modell zur Schätzung von Arbeitskräfteangebot und Bevölkerung," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201610, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Geeta G. Kingdon & John B. Knight, 2000. "Are searching and non-searching unemployment distinct states when unemployment is high? The case of South Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    11. Johann Fuchs & Doris Söhnlein & Brigitte Weber & Enzo Weber, 2018. "Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 37(1), pages 33-58, February.
    12. Jan Gromadzki, 2019. "The Added Worker Effect, Employment Contracts, and the Reasons for the Wife’s Inactivity," IBS Working Papers 02/2019, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    13. Julio Guzman, 2014. "Social Protection and Private Coping Strategies During Recessions: Evidence from Chile," Working Papers wp_041, Adolfo Ibáñez University, School of Government.
    14. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2006. "Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the US and the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 7_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
    15. Malgorzata Mikucka, 2016. "How to Measure Employment Status and Occupation in Analyses of Survey Data? (Jak mierzyc status zatrudnienia i pozycjê zawodowa w analizach danych sondazowych?)," Problemy Zarzadzania, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 14(60), pages 40-60.
    16. Ewa Gałecka-Burdziak & Marek Góra, 2016. "The impact of easy and early access to old-age benefits on exits from the labour market: a macro-micro analysis," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    17. Ga?ecka-Burdziak, Ewa & Góra, Marek, 2015. "Impacts of the Availability of Old-Age Benefits on Exits from the Labour Market," IZA Discussion Papers 9014, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (ed.), 2007. "Das Erreichte nicht verspielen. Jahresgutachten 2007/08 [The gains must not be squandered. Annual Report 2007/08]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 200708, September.
    19. Rob Euwals & Marike Knoef & Daniel Vuuren, 2011. "The trend in female labour force participation: what can be expected for the future?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 729-753, May.
    20. Shalina Susan MATHEW, 2024. "Working, yet not working: Assessing labour underutilization in India," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 163(1), pages 141-162, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iab:iabfob:202106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: IAB, Geschäftsbereich Wissenschaftliche Fachinformation und Bibliothek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iabbbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.