Crise de la théorie et crise de la politique économique : des modèles d'équilibre général stochastique aux modèles de dynamique hors de l'équilibre

This paper is dedicated at reconsidering the objectives of monetary policy and also at redefining a policy mix in an economy which is systematically confronted to imbalances due to changes in technology, in the composition of demand or in the distribution of income, It is motivated by the policy failures as revealed by the on-going crisis. A critical assessment of DSGE models, which are the theoretical basis for the monetary policy currently carried out by central banks that only targets a rate of inflation, is the starting point for reconsidering the nature of fluctuations and giving arguments in favour of an out-of-equilibrium approach. This approach focuses on the distortions in the structure of productive capacity induced by any structural change, and shows why and how the time inconsistency between the construction and the utilization phases of the production process has a monetary and a financial counterpart that may generate a global instability. It calls for a revision of objectives of monetary policy and a new policy mix.