IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v32y2018i4d10.1007_s11269-017-1870-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Future Scenarios of Surface Water Resources Availability in North African Dams

Author

Listed:
  • Yves Tramblay

    (HSM (IRD, CNRS, University of Montpellier))

  • Lionel Jarlan

    (CESBIO (IRD, CNES, CNRS, University Paul Sabatier))

  • Lahoucine Hanich

    (Université Cadi Ayyad)

  • Samuel Somot

    (CNRM (Météo France, CNRS))

Abstract

Climate change may have strong impacts on water resources in developing countries. In North Africa, many dams and reservoirs have been built to secure water availability in the context of a strong inter-annual variability of precipitation. The goal of this study is to evaluate climate change impacts on surface water resources for the largest dams in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia using high-resolution (12 km) regional climate models (RCM) simulations. To evaluate the atmospheric demand (evapotranspiration), two approaches are compared: The direct use of actual evaporation simulated by the RCMs, or estimation of reference evapotranspiration computed with the Hargreaves-Samani (HAR) equation, relying on air temperature only, and the FAO-Penman Monteith (PM) equation, computed with temperature, wind, radiation and relative humidity. Results showed a strong convergence of the RCM simulations towards increased temperature and a decrease in precipitation, in particular during spring and the western part of North Africa. A decrease in actual evapotranspiration, highly correlated to the decrease in precipitations, is observed throughout the study area. On the opposite, an increase in reference evapotranspiration is observed, with similar changes between HAR and PM equations, indicating that the main driver of change is the temperature increase. Since the catchments are rather water-limited than energy-limited, despite opposite projections for actual and reference evapotranspiration a decrease of water availability is projected for all basins under all scenarios, with a strong east-to-west gradient. The projected decrease is stronger when considering reference evapotranspiration rather than actual evaporation. These pessimistic future projections are an incentive to adapt the current management of surface water resources to future climatic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yves Tramblay & Lionel Jarlan & Lahoucine Hanich & Samuel Somot, 2018. "Future Scenarios of Surface Water Resources Availability in North African Dams," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1291-1306, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1870-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1870-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-017-1870-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-017-1870-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P. C. D. Milly & K. A. Dunne & A. V. Vecchia, 2005. "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 347-350, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moon-Hwan Lee & Deg-Hyo Bae & Eun-Soon Im, 2019. "Effect of the Horizontal Resolution of Climate Simulations on the Hydrological Representation of Extreme Low and High Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(13), pages 4653-4666, October.
    2. L. V. Noto & G. Cipolla & D. Pumo & A. Francipane, 2023. "Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2307-2323, May.
    3. Sarfo, Isaac & Qiao, Jiajun & Yeboah, Emmanuel & Puplampu, Dzifa Adimle & Kwang, Clement & Fynn, Iris Ekua Mensimah & Batame, Michael & Appea, Emmanuella Aboagye & Hagan, Daniel Fiifi Tawia & Ayelazun, 2024. "Meta-analysis of land use systems development in Africa: Trajectories, implications, adaptive capacity, and future dynamics," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Leonardo V. Noto & Giuseppe Cipolla & Antonio Francipane & Dario Pumo, 2023. "Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part I): Induced Alterations on Climate Forcings and Hydrological Processes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2287-2305, May.
    5. Yves Tramblay & Samuel Somot, 2018. "Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 289-302, November.
    6. Hachaichi, Mohamed, 2023. "Unpacking the urban virtual water of the Global South: Lessons from 181 cities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    7. Mohammed Achite & Tommaso Caloiero & Abderrezak Kamel Toubal, 2022. "Rainfall and Runoff Trend Analysis in the Wadi Mina Basin (Northern Algeria) Using Non-Parametric Tests and the ITA Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-23, August.
    8. Kehao Sheng & Zhongkun Tang & Chao Sun & Shiyu Wang, 2022. "Comprehensive Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Yangtze River Economic Belt Based On Topsis-Aism Model," Environment & Ecosystem Science (EES), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 57-64, May.
    9. D. Carvalho & S. C. Pereira & R. Silva & A. Rocha, 2022. "Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-24, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Quiggin, 2010. "Agriculture and global climate stabilization: a public good analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-132, November.
    2. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    3. Andrew John & Avril Horne & Rory Nathan & Michael Stewardson & J. Angus Webb & Jun Wang & N. LeRoy Poff, 2021. "Climate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), March.
    4. I. García-Garizábal & J. Causapé & R. Abrahao & D. Merchan, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigation Demand: Historical Dynamics of Climate and Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1449-1462, March.
    5. Quiggin, John & Adamson, David & Chambers, Sarah & Schrobback, Peggy, 2009. "Climate change, mitigation and adaptation: the case of the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149878, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
    6. Hsin-Yu Chen & Chia-Chi Huang & Hsin-Fu Yeh, 2021. "Quantifying the Relative Contribution of the Climate Change and Human Activity on Runoff in the Choshui River Alluvial Fan, Taiwan," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    7. Moon-Hwan Lee & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2015. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Green and Blue Water over Asian Monsoon Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2407-2427, May.
    8. Nicolas Misailidis Stríkis & Plácido Fabrício Silva Melo Buarque & Francisco William Cruz & Juan Pablo Bernal & Mathias Vuille & Ernesto Tejedor & Matheus Simões Santos & Marília Harumi Shimizu & Ange, 2024. "Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Wenxin Xu & Jie Chen & Xunchang J. Zhang, 2022. "Scale Effects of the Monthly Streamflow Prediction Using a State-of-the-art Deep Learning Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3609-3625, August.
    10. Kukal, M.S. & Irmak, S., 2020. "Characterization of water use and productivity dynamics across four C3 and C4 row crops under optimal growth conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    11. John Quiggin & David Adamson & Sarah Chambers & Peggy Schrobback, 2010. "Climate Change, Uncertainty, and Adaptation: The Case of Irrigated Agriculture in the Murray–Darling Basin in Australia," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(4), pages 531-554, December.
    12. Moldir Rakhimova & Tie Liu & Sanim Bissenbayeva & Yerbolat Mukanov & Khusen Sh. Gafforov & Zhuldyzay Bekpergenova & Aminjon Gulakhmadov, 2020. "Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Using Climate Elasticity Method and General Circulation Model (GCM) in the Buqtyrma River Basin, Kazakhstan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Jinfei Hu & Guangju Zhao & Pengfei Li & Xingmin Mu, 2022. "Variations of pan evaporation and its attribution from 1961 to 2015 on the Loess Plateau, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1199-1217, March.
    14. Asim Jahangir Khan & Manfred Koch & Adnan Ahmad Tahir, 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change on the Water Availability, Seasonality and Extremes in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-27, February.
    15. Xiaowen Zhuang & Yurui Fan & Yongping Li & Chuanbao Wu, 2023. "Evaluation Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Over the Upper Reach of the Yellow River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2875-2889, May.
    16. Dayang Wang & Dagang Wang & Chongxun Mo & Yi Du, 2021. "Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1585-1608, September.
    17. Wang, Sicong & Wang, Shifeng, 2017. "Implications of improving energy efficiency for water resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P1), pages 922-928.
    18. Peng Qi & Guangxin Zhang & Yi Jun Xu & Zhikun Xia & Ming Wang, 2019. "Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-21, October.
    19. Marianne Fay & Rachel I. Block & Jane Ebinger, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change in Eastern Europe and Central Asia," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2407.
    20. Yan Ma & Arvid Bring & Zahra Kalantari & Georgia Destouni, 2019. "Potential for Hydroclimatically Driven Shifts in Infectious Disease Outbreaks: The Case of Tularemia in High-Latitude Regions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-11, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1870-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.