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Future Scenarios of Surface Water Resources Availability in North African Dams

Author

Listed:
  • Yves Tramblay

    (HSM (IRD, CNRS, University of Montpellier))

  • Lionel Jarlan

    (CESBIO (IRD, CNES, CNRS, University Paul Sabatier))

  • Lahoucine Hanich

    (Université Cadi Ayyad)

  • Samuel Somot

    (CNRM (Météo France, CNRS))

Abstract

Climate change may have strong impacts on water resources in developing countries. In North Africa, many dams and reservoirs have been built to secure water availability in the context of a strong inter-annual variability of precipitation. The goal of this study is to evaluate climate change impacts on surface water resources for the largest dams in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia using high-resolution (12 km) regional climate models (RCM) simulations. To evaluate the atmospheric demand (evapotranspiration), two approaches are compared: The direct use of actual evaporation simulated by the RCMs, or estimation of reference evapotranspiration computed with the Hargreaves-Samani (HAR) equation, relying on air temperature only, and the FAO-Penman Monteith (PM) equation, computed with temperature, wind, radiation and relative humidity. Results showed a strong convergence of the RCM simulations towards increased temperature and a decrease in precipitation, in particular during spring and the western part of North Africa. A decrease in actual evapotranspiration, highly correlated to the decrease in precipitations, is observed throughout the study area. On the opposite, an increase in reference evapotranspiration is observed, with similar changes between HAR and PM equations, indicating that the main driver of change is the temperature increase. Since the catchments are rather water-limited than energy-limited, despite opposite projections for actual and reference evapotranspiration a decrease of water availability is projected for all basins under all scenarios, with a strong east-to-west gradient. The projected decrease is stronger when considering reference evapotranspiration rather than actual evaporation. These pessimistic future projections are an incentive to adapt the current management of surface water resources to future climatic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yves Tramblay & Lionel Jarlan & Lahoucine Hanich & Samuel Somot, 2018. "Future Scenarios of Surface Water Resources Availability in North African Dams," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1291-1306, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:32:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1870-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1870-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. P. C. D. Milly & K. A. Dunne & A. V. Vecchia, 2005. "Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 347-350, November.
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    5. Mohammed Achite & Tommaso Caloiero & Abderrezak Kamel Toubal, 2022. "Rainfall and Runoff Trend Analysis in the Wadi Mina Basin (Northern Algeria) Using Non-Parametric Tests and the ITA Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-23, August.
    6. Kehao Sheng & Zhongkun Tang & Chao Sun & Shiyu Wang, 2022. "Comprehensive Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity Of Yangtze River Economic Belt Based On Topsis-Aism Model," Environment & Ecosystem Science (EES), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 6(2), pages 57-64, May.
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    8. D. Carvalho & S. C. Pereira & R. Silva & A. Rocha, 2022. "Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-24, October.

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