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Climate projections and downscaling techniques: a discussion for impact studies in urban systems

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  • Marek Smid
  • Ana Cristina Costa

Abstract

Urban systems are not only major drivers of climate change but also the impact hotspots. In the context of the planet currently undergoing a process of greenhouse warming, and simultaneously predominantly urban based ever continuing population growth, our agglomerations became vulnerable to chain reactions triggered by climate related hazards. Hence, the reliable and cost-effective assessment of future impact is of high importance. While the climate community has invested significant effort to provide downscaling techniques yielding localized information on future climate extreme behaviours, these methods do not remain widely exploited in the process of urban planning. In this work, we discuss the underlying reasons and main challenges of the applicability of downscaling procedures in the real process of urban planning. This paper attempts to help bridge the gap between the communities of urban planners and climatology. In the beginning, we summarize the rationale for such cooperation, supporting the argument that the scale represents an important linkage between urbanistic and climate science in the process of designing an urban space. Secondly, we introduce the main families of downscaling techniques and their application on climate projections, also providing the references to profound studies in the field. Thirdly, special attention is given to previous works focused on the utilization of downscaled ensembles of climate simulations in urban agglomerations. Finally, we identify three major challenges of the wider utilization of climate projections and downscaling techniques, namely: (i) the scale mismatch between data needs and data availability, (ii) the terminology, and (iii) the IT bottleneck. The practical implications of these issues are discussed in the context of urban studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Marek Smid & Ana Cristina Costa, 2018. "Climate projections and downscaling techniques: a discussion for impact studies in urban systems," International Journal of Urban Sciences, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 277-307, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjusxx:v:22:y:2018:i:3:p:277-307
    DOI: 10.1080/12265934.2017.1409132
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    Cited by:

    1. L. V. Noto & G. Cipolla & D. Pumo & A. Francipane, 2023. "Climate Change in the Mediterranean Basin (Part II): A Review of Challenges and Uncertainties in Climate Change Modeling and Impact Analyses," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2307-2323, May.
    2. Yeri Choi & Sugie Lee & Hyunbin Moon, 2018. "Urban Physical Environments and the Duration of High Air Temperature: Focusing on Solar Radiation Trapping Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Angelos Alamanos & Tatiana Pliakou & Efi Tritopoulou & Phoebe Koundouri & Lydia Papadaki, 2021. "Water Resources Management and the situation of the Water District of Thessaly. Report of the Project of the Athenian Brewery 'Water for Tomorrow'," DEOS Working Papers 2117, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    4. Jean-Francois Bastin & Emily Clark & Thomas Elliott & Simon Hart & Johan van den Hoogen & Iris Hordijk & Haozhi Ma & Sabiha Majumder & Gabriele Manoli & Julia Maschler & Lidong Mo & Devin Routh & Kail, 2019. "Understanding climate change from a global analysis of city analogues," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-13, July.
    5. Živa Ravnikar & Alfonso Bahillo & Barbara Goličnik Marušić, 2023. "A Protocol for Microclimate-Related Street Assessment and the Potential of Detailed Environmental Data for Better Consideration of Microclimatology in Urban Planning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-22, May.
    6. Kelly Wanser & Sarah J. Doherty & James W. Hurrell & Alex Wong, 2022. "Near-term climate risks and sunlight reflection modification: a roadmap approach for physical sciences research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-20, October.

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