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Evaluating Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change Under Climate Change on the Lake Marmara System

Author

Listed:
  • Mert Can Gunacti

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Gulay Onusluel Gul

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Cem P. Cetinkaya

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Ali Gul

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

  • Filiz Barbaros

    (Dokuz Eylül University)

Abstract

Persistent pressures that relate to nonstationary climate variations and land use/cover changes (LULCC) keep affecting water resources and their associated environmental services with increasing impact trends worldwide. Lake Marmara, located in Gediz River Basin in Western Turkey, is among the environmentally degraded water resources while officially announced as a priority wetland due to historical habitats and ecosystem functions. The region is remarkably under threat, especially after the construction of a reservoir on upstream reach that feeds the lake and the combined impacts of both climate and LULCC. These issues restrict local communities' access to fundamental ecosystem services for their survivability. The study investigates the effects of LULCC in the example of Lake Marmara in an environmental scope and provides water balance modelling that is utilized to help examine hydrologic conditions of the lake under climate change. The study evaluates future hydrologic conditions with RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, while combining future LULCC and water demand projections. These above mentioned various pressures are incorporated into modelling scenarios to evaluate the state of the lake for the year of 2050 under different circumstances. The study revealed that in every scenario analysed, the lake dries out and is incapable of maintaining the required water amount to sustain its wildlife and ecosystem. As a result, some new water allocation policies and strategies are essential for the survival of the Lake Marmara System.

Suggested Citation

  • Mert Can Gunacti & Gulay Onusluel Gul & Cem P. Cetinkaya & Ali Gul & Filiz Barbaros, 2023. "Evaluating Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Change Under Climate Change on the Lake Marmara System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2643-2656, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:6:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03317-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03317-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cem P. Cetinkaya & Mert Can Gunacti, 2018. "Multi-Criteria Analysis of Water Allocation Scenarios in a Water Scarce Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2867-2884, June.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Muhammad Hadi Saputra & Han Soo Lee, 2019. "Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Changes for North Sumatra, Indonesia, Using an Artificial-Neural-Network-Based Cellular Automaton," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
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