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Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare

Author

Listed:
  • Huanbi Yue

    (Beijing Normal University
    Ocean University of China
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Chunyang He

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University
    People’s Government of Qinghai Province & Beijing Normal University)

  • Qingxu Huang

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University)

  • Da Zhang

    (Yanbian University)

  • Peijun Shi

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University
    People’s Government of Qinghai Province & Beijing Normal University)

  • Enayat A. Moallemi

    (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO))

  • Fangjin Xu

    (Beijing Normal University
    Beijing Normal University
    Peking University)

  • Yang Yang

    (Ocean University of China
    Ocean University of China)

  • Xin Qi

    (Ocean University of China)

  • Qun Ma

    (Shanghai Normal University)

  • Brett A. Bryan

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.9 calls for a substantial reduction in deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution (DAPP). However, DAPP projections vary greatly and the likelihood of meeting SDG3.9 depends on complex interactions among environmental, socio-economic, and healthcare parameters. We project potential future trends in global DAPP considering the joint effects of each driver (PM2.5 concentration, death rate of diseases, population size, and age structure) and assess the likelihood of achieving SDG3.9 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as quantified by the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) framework with simulated PM2.5 concentrations from 11 models. We find that a substantial reduction in DAPP would not be achieved under all but the most optimistic scenario settings. Even the development aligned with the Sustainability scenario (SSP1-2.6), in which DAPP was reduced by 19%, still falls just short of achieving a substantial (≥20%) reduction by 2030. Meeting SDG3.9 calls for additional efforts in air pollution control and healthcare to more aggressively reduce DAPP.

Suggested Citation

  • Huanbi Yue & Chunyang He & Qingxu Huang & Da Zhang & Peijun Shi & Enayat A. Moallemi & Fangjin Xu & Yang Yang & Xin Qi & Qun Ma & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-46969-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46969-3
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