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Sensitivity of WOFOST-based modelling solutions to crop parameters under climate change

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  • Gilardelli, Carlo
  • Confalonieri, Roberto
  • Cappelli, Giovanni Alessandro
  • Bellocchi, Gianni

Abstract

The formalization of novel equations explicitly modelling the impact of extreme weather events into the crop model WOFOST (EMS: existing modelling solution; MMS: modified modelling solution) is proposed as a way to reduce the uncertainty in estimations of crop yield. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed to assess the effect of changing parameters values on the yield simulated by the model (both EMS and MMS) for different crops (winter and durum wheat, winter barley, maize, sunflower) grown under a variety of conditions (including future climate realisations) in Europe. A two-step SA was performed using global techniques: the Morris screening method for qualitative ranking of parameters was first used, followed by the eFAST variance-based method, which attributes portions of variance in the model output to each parameter.

Suggested Citation

  • Gilardelli, Carlo & Confalonieri, Roberto & Cappelli, Giovanni Alessandro & Bellocchi, Gianni, 2018. "Sensitivity of WOFOST-based modelling solutions to crop parameters under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:368:y:2018:i:c:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.11.003
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    1. Bregaglio, Simone & Ginaldi, Fabrizio & Raparelli, Elisabetta & Fila, Gianni & Bajocco, Sofia, 2023. "Improving crop yield prediction accuracy by embedding phenological heterogeneity into model parameter sets," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. Haowei Sun & Jinghan Ma & Li Wang, 2023. "Changes in per capita wheat production in China in the context of climate change and population growth," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(3), pages 597-612, June.
    3. Jiandong Liu & Jun Du & De-Li Liu & Hans W. Linderholm & Guangsheng Zhou & Yanling Song & Yanbo Shen & Qiang Yu, 2022. "Spatial and Temporal Variations in the Potential Yields of Highland Barley in Relation to Climate Change in Three Rivers Region of the Tibetan Plateau from 1961 to 2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-15, June.

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