Losses from Fluvial Floods in Poland over the 21st Century – Estimation Using the Productivity Costs Method

This paper aims at the estimation of the impact of climate change on future losses caused by fluvial floods in Poland over the twenty-first century at the local level with the productivity costs valuation method. The daily data on river discharges published by (Piniewski et al., Hydrol Process 31:2210–2225, 2017), map of flood risk and value added generated in each county are used to estimate of the impact of climate change on the fluvial flood damage at the county level. This study supplements the findings of (Koks et al., Environ Res Lett 14:084042, 2019), (Alfieri et al., Clim Change 136:507–521, 2016) and (Feyen et al., Clim Change 112:47–62, 2012) with estimates of future flood losses in Poland using the productivity costs valuation that considers also the costs of disruptions of production chains and lost production at the finer level of spatial disaggregation. This method shows the overall increase in losses caused by fluvial floods in Poland due to climate change in comparison to the reference period of 1974–2000 by 47% in RCP4.5 and 83% in RCP8.5 scenario in 2024–2050 and by 32% in RCP4.5 and 51% in the RCP8.5 in 2074–2100.