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Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Mansoor Ahmed

    (University of Sindh)

  • Ghulam Hussain Dars

    (Mehran University of Engineering and Technology)

  • Suhail Ahmed

    (Mehran University of Engineering and Technology)

  • Nir Y. Krakauer

    (City College of New York)

Abstract

This study examines the drought patterns in Pakistan's Sindh Province (low-riparian of the Indus Basin) from 1902 to 2015 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on 3-month and 12-month timescales. The spatial "K"luster analysis using tree edge removal method was used to divide the study area into four zones with similar climatic characteristics. Then, the run theory was applied to characterize droughts (durations, severity, intensity, and peaks) in each zone. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test was also applied to analyze statistically significant trends by zone and drought characteristic. It was found that all four zones experienced a decrease in SPEI throughout the analyzed period. The effects of climate change are more evident when we analyzed drought characteristics in two time slices, i.e., pre and post-1960. The results showed that in the post-1960 time slice, droughts increased in duration, severity, intensity, and peaks over the entire study area under both 3 and 12-month SPEI. The findings of this study can assist policymakers and water managers in devising policies for managing limited water resources under changing patterns of droughts in Sindh Province.

Suggested Citation

  • Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:119:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06082-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06082-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wen Wang & Ye Zhu & Rengui Xu & Jintao Liu, 2015. "Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2437-2451, February.
    2. Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2012. "Historical drought trends revisited," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 338-339, November.
    3. Muhammad Athar Haroon & Jiahua Zhang & Fengmei Yao, 2016. "Drought monitoring and performance evaluation of MODIS-based drought severity index (DSI) over Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 1349-1366, November.
    4. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    5. Rina Wu & Jiquan Zhang & Yuhai Bao & Enliang Guo, 2019. "Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    6. Shahzada Adnan & Kalim Ullah, 2020. "Development of drought hazard index for vulnerability assessment in Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2989-3010, September.
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