IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v119y2023i1d10.1007_s11069-023-06082-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Mansoor Ahmed

    (University of Sindh)

  • Ghulam Hussain Dars

    (Mehran University of Engineering and Technology)

  • Suhail Ahmed

    (Mehran University of Engineering and Technology)

  • Nir Y. Krakauer

    (City College of New York)

Abstract

This study examines the drought patterns in Pakistan's Sindh Province (low-riparian of the Indus Basin) from 1902 to 2015 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on 3-month and 12-month timescales. The spatial "K"luster analysis using tree edge removal method was used to divide the study area into four zones with similar climatic characteristics. Then, the run theory was applied to characterize droughts (durations, severity, intensity, and peaks) in each zone. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test was also applied to analyze statistically significant trends by zone and drought characteristic. It was found that all four zones experienced a decrease in SPEI throughout the analyzed period. The effects of climate change are more evident when we analyzed drought characteristics in two time slices, i.e., pre and post-1960. The results showed that in the post-1960 time slice, droughts increased in duration, severity, intensity, and peaks over the entire study area under both 3 and 12-month SPEI. The findings of this study can assist policymakers and water managers in devising policies for managing limited water resources under changing patterns of droughts in Sindh Province.

Suggested Citation

  • Mansoor Ahmed & Ghulam Hussain Dars & Suhail Ahmed & Nir Y. Krakauer, 2023. "Analyzing drought trends over Sindh Province, Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 643-661, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:119:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06082-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-023-06082-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-023-06082-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-023-06082-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wen Wang & Ye Zhu & Rengui Xu & Jintao Liu, 2015. "Drought severity change in China during 1961–2012 indicated by SPI and SPEI," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2437-2451, February.
    2. Muhammad Athar Haroon & Jiahua Zhang & Fengmei Yao, 2016. "Drought monitoring and performance evaluation of MODIS-based drought severity index (DSI) over Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 1349-1366, November.
    3. Shahzada Adnan & Kalim Ullah, 2020. "Development of drought hazard index for vulnerability assessment in Pakistan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 2989-3010, September.
    4. Sonia I. Seneviratne, 2012. "Historical drought trends revisited," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 338-339, November.
    5. Sheng Yue & ChunYuan Wang, 2004. "The Mann-Kendall Test Modified by Effective Sample Size to Detect Trend in Serially Correlated Hydrological Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(3), pages 201-218, June.
    6. Rina Wu & Jiquan Zhang & Yuhai Bao & Enliang Guo, 2019. "Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq & Cheuk Yin Wai & Nitin Muttil, 2020. "Vulnerability Assessment of Ubiquitous Cities Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Xiaqing Feng & Guangxin Zhang & Xiongrui Yin, 2011. "Hydrological Responses to Climate Change in Nenjiang River Basin, Northeastern China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 677-689, January.
    3. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    4. Rui Zhang & Taotao Chen & Daocai Chi, 2020. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at Different Time Scales in Jilin Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Wan-Jiun Chen, 2017. "Is the Green Solow Model Valid for $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ CO 2 Emissions in the European Union?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(1), pages 23-45, May.
    6. Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    7. Myoung-Jin Um & Jun-Haeng Heo & Momcilo Markus & Donald J. Wuebbles, 2018. "Performance Evaluation of four Statistical Tests for Trend and Non-stationarity and Assessment of Observed and Projected Annual Maximum Precipitation Series in Major United States Cities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 913-933, February.
    8. Milan Stojković & Srđan Kostić & Stevan Prohaska & Jasna Plavšić & Vesna Tripković, 2017. "A New Approach for Trend Assessment of Annual Streamflows: a Case Study of Hydropower Plants in Serbia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(4), pages 1089-1103, March.
    9. Anas Mahmood Al-Juboori, 2019. "Generating Monthly Stream Flow Using Nearest River Data: Assessing Different Trees Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(9), pages 3257-3270, July.
    10. Farahani Mohd Saimi & Firdaus Mohamad Hamzah & Mohd Ekhwan Toriman & Othman Jaafar & Hazrina Tajudin, 2020. "Trend and Linearity Analysis of Meteorological Parameters in Peninsular Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-19, November.
    11. Yiting Shao & Xiaohui Zhai & Xingmin Mu & Sen Zheng & Dandan Shen & Jinglin Qian, 2024. "An Attribution Analysis of Runoff Alterations in the Danjiang River Watershed for Sustainable Water Resource Management by Different Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-23, September.
    12. Mojtaba Shadmani & Safar Marofi & Majid Roknian, 2012. "Trend Analysis in Reference Evapotranspiration Using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho Tests in Arid Regions of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 211-224, January.
    13. Gokmen Ceribasi & Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu & Andrzej Wałęga & Dariusz Młyński, 2022. "Investigation of the Effect of Climate Change on Energy Produced by Hydroelectric Power Plants (HEPPs) by Trend Analysis Method: A Case Study for Dogancay I–II HEPPs," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-17, March.
    14. Guangju Zhao & Georg Hörmann & Nicola Fohrer & Zengxin Zhang & Jianqing Zhai, 2010. "Streamflow Trends and Climate Variability Impacts in Poyang Lake Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(4), pages 689-706, March.
    15. Jinfei Hu & Guangju Zhao & Pengfei Li & Xingmin Mu, 2022. "Variations of pan evaporation and its attribution from 1961 to 2015 on the Loess Plateau, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1199-1217, March.
    16. Mohammed Achite & Gokmen Ceribasi & Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu & Andrzej Wałęga & Tommaso Caloiero, 2021. "The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) as a Simple Qualitative Method to Detect Changes in Environment—Example Detecting Trends of the Total Monthly Precipitation in Semiarid Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-17, November.
    17. Varsha Pandey & Prashant K Srivastava & Sudhir K Singh & George P. Petropoulos & Rajesh Kumar Mall, 2021. "Drought Identification and Trend Analysis Using Long-Term CHIRPS Satellite Precipitation Product in Bundelkhand, India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-19, January.
    18. Lihua Xiong & Tao Du & Chong-Yu Xu & Shenglian Guo & Cong Jiang & Christopher Gippel, 2015. "Non-Stationary Annual Maximum Flood Frequency Analysis Using the Norming Constants Method to Consider Non-Stationarity in the Annual Daily Flow Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3615-3633, August.
    19. Hongjun Lei & Jie Yu & Hongwei Pan & Jie Li & Shah Jahan Leghari & Chongju Shang & Zheyuan Xiao & Cuicui Jin & Lili Shi, 2023. "A New Agricultural Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Framework: Coupled a Copula Function to Select Return Periods and the Jensen Model to Calculate Yield Loss," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.
    20. Xingcai Liu & Zongxue Xu & Ruihong Yu, 2011. "Trend of climate variability in China during the past decades," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 503-516, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:119:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-023-06082-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.