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A Robust Method to Update Local River Inundation Maps Using Global Climate Model Output and Weather Typing Based Statistical Downscaling

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  • M. Bermúdez

    (University of Granada)

  • L. Cea

    (Universidade da Coruña)

  • E. Van Uytven

    (KU Leuven)

  • P. Willems

    (KU Leuven)

  • J.F. Farfán

    (Universidade da Coruña)

  • J. Puertas

    (Universidade da Coruña)

Abstract

Global warming is changing the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. This requires updating local rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves and flood hazard maps according to the future climate scenarios. This is, however, far from straightforward, given our limited ability to model the effects of climate change on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall at small scales. In this study, we develop a robust method to update local IDF relations for sub-daily rainfall extremes using Global Climate Model (GCM) data, and we apply it to a coastal town in NW Spain. First, the relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation, described by means of Lamb Circulation Type classification (LCT), and rainfall events with potential for flood generation is analyzed. A broad ensemble set of GCM runs is used to identify frequency changes in LCTs, and to assess the occurrence of flood generating events in the future. In a parallel way, we use this Weather Type (WT) classification and climate-flood linkages to downscale rainfall from GCMs, and to determine the IDF curves for the future climate scenarios. A hydrological-hydraulic modeling chain is then used to quantify the changes in flood maps induced by the IDF changes. The results point to a future increase in rainfall intensity for all rainfall durations, which consequently results in an increased flood hazard in the urban area. While acknowledging the uncertainty in the GCM projections, the results show the need to update IDF standards and flood hazard maps to reflect potential changes in future extreme rainfall intensities.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Bermúdez & L. Cea & E. Van Uytven & P. Willems & J.F. Farfán & J. Puertas, 2020. "A Robust Method to Update Local River Inundation Maps Using Global Climate Model Output and Weather Typing Based Statistical Downscaling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4345-4362, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02673-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02673-7
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    1. Francesco Dottori & Wojciech Szewczyk & Juan-Carlos Ciscar & Fang Zhao & Lorenzo Alfieri & Yukiko Hirabayashi & Alessandra Bianchi & Ignazio Mongelli & Katja Frieler & Richard A. Betts & Luc Feyen, 2018. "Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 781-786, September.
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    3. Julia C. Hargreaves, 2010. "Skill and uncertainty in climate models," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(4), pages 556-564, July.
    4. J. Sopelana & L. Cea & S. Ruano, 2018. "A continuous simulation approach for the estimation of extreme flood inundation in coastal river reaches affected by meso- and macrotides," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1337-1358, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jinping Zhang & Dong Wang & Yuhao Wang & Honglin Xiao & Muxiang Zeng, 2023. "Runoff Prediction Under Extreme Precipitation and Corresponding Meteorological Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3377-3394, July.
    2. Luis Garrote & Alvaro Sordo-Ward, 2020. "Preface to the Special Issue: Managing Water Resources for a Sustainable Future," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(14), pages 4307-4311, November.
    3. Ahmad Jafarzadeh & Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi & Abbas Khashei Siuki & Javad Ramezani Moghadam, 2021. "Examination of Various Feature Selection Approaches for Daily Precipitation Downscaling in Different Climates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 407-427, January.
    4. Swati Maurya & Prashant K. Srivastava & Lu Zhuo & Aradhana Yaduvanshi & R. K. Mall, 2023. "Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2675-2696, May.

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