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Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

Author

Listed:
  • L. Mearns
  • S. Sain
  • L. Leung
  • M. Bukovsky
  • S. McGinnis
  • S. Biner
  • D. Caya
  • R. Arritt
  • W. Gutowski
  • E. Takle
  • M. Snyder
  • R. Jones
  • A. Nunes
  • S. Tucker
  • D. Herzmann
  • L. McDaniel
  • L. Sloan

Abstract

We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs. Copyright The Author(s) 2013

Suggested Citation

  • L. Mearns & S. Sain & L. Leung & M. Bukovsky & S. McGinnis & S. Biner & D. Caya & R. Arritt & W. Gutowski & E. Takle & M. Snyder & R. Jones & A. Nunes & S. Tucker & D. Herzmann & L. McDaniel & L. Sloa, 2013. "Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 965-975, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:4:p:965-975
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0831-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Scott & Don S. Daly & Mohamad I. Hejazi & G. Page Kyle & Lu Liu & Haewon C. McJeon & Anupriya Mundra & Pralit L. Patel & Jennie S. Rice & Nathalie Voisin, 2016. "Sensitivity of future U.S. Water shortages to socioeconomic and climate drivers: a case study in Georgia using an integrated human-earth system modeling framework," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(2), pages 233-246, May.
    2. Melissa S. Bukovsky & Linda O. Mearns, 2020. "Regional climate change projections from NA-CORDEX and their relation to climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 645-665, September.
    3. Yinghao Miao & Jiajia Sheng & Jin Ye, 2022. "An Assessment of the Impact of Temperature Rise Due to Climate Change on Asphalt Pavement in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, July.
    4. Subhra Sekhar Maity & Rajib Maity, 2022. "Changing Pattern of Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationship of Precipitation due to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(14), pages 5371-5399, November.
    5. Ian Kraucunas & Leon Clarke & James Dirks & John Hathaway & Mohamad Hejazi & Kathy Hibbard & Maoyi Huang & Chunlian Jin & Michael Kintner-Meyer & Kerstin Dam & Ruby Leung & Hong-Yi Li & Richard Moss &, 2015. "Investigating the nexus of climate, energy, water, and land at decision-relevant scales: the Platform for Regional Integrated Modeling and Analysis (PRIMA)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 573-588, April.
    6. Esther Salazar & Dorit Hammerling & Xia Wang & Bruno Sansó & Andrew O. Finley & Linda O. Mearns, 2016. "Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 55-69, September.
    7. Keane, Robert E. & McKenzie, Donald & Falk, Donald A. & Smithwick, Erica A.H. & Miller, Carol & Kellogg, Lara-Karena B., 2015. "Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 309, pages 33-47.
    8. Ryan Hill & Charles Hawkins & Jiming Jin, 2014. "Predicting thermal vulnerability of stream and river ecosystems to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 399-412, August.
    9. Daniel Wallach & Linda O. Mearns & Alex C. Ruane & Reimund P. Rötter & Senthold Asseng, 2016. "Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 551-564, December.
    10. Farrell, Kaitlin J. & Ward, Nicole K. & Krinos, Arianna I. & Hanson, Paul C. & Daneshmand, Vahid & Figueiredo, Renato J. & Carey, Cayelan C., 2020. "Ecosystem-scale nutrient cycling responses to increasing air temperatures vary with lake trophic state," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 430(C).
    11. Thompson, Wyatt & Lu, Yaqiong & Gerlt, Scott & Yang, Xianyu & Campbell, J. Elliott & Kueppers, Lara M. & Snyder, Mark A., 2018. "Automatic Responses of Crop Stocks and Policies Buffer Climate Change Effects on Crop Markets and Price Volatility," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 98-105.

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