Risks Ranking in a Desalination Plant Construction Project with a Hybrid AHP, Risk Matrix, and Simulation-Based Approach

This paper proposes a hybrid process based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), risk matrix, and Monte Carlo Simulation for prioritizing delay risks in construction projects and estimating the probability of timely project completion. The main contribution of this study is the development of a novel framework for risk assessment that quantifies the impact of more critical risks to each activity according to its nature and benefits from the advantages of the AHP for constructing an enhanced risk matrix. In addition to the above, the proposed framework exploits the computational potential of Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain more accurate predictions of a project’s completion time. The proposed approach was used for analyzing the duration, expected delay, and the probability of completion within the deadline, of a vital seawater desalination plant construction project, on the island of Alonissos, Greece. The proposed framework predicted the project duration more accurately than the classic PERT method did, and the results of the analysis documented that it could be a simple tool providing risk managers with helpful information while making decisions under uncertainty.