IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/ijofsd/345349.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Cost of Climate Change to Agricultural Industries: Coconuts in Sri Lanka

Author

Listed:
  • Pathiraja, Erandathie
  • Griffith, Garry
  • Farquharson, Robert
  • Faggia, Rob

Abstract

Agriculture in low latitude countries such as Sri Lanka is already operating at the maximum temperature limits for crop growth and faces increased production risk from expected climate change. Sri Lanka is a developing country with limited economic and technological capacity to develop adaptation strategies; hence more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. Coconut (Cocos nucifera L) is a rain fed perennial crop important in Sri Lankan culture, food consumption and the economy. It is the second most important food in the Sri Lankan diet after rice. Several studies have examined the impact of climate change on Sri Lankan agriculture, but none were conducted to simulate the impact of future climate change and future adaptation strategies on coconut production, or to calculate the economic welfare effects for different stakeholders in the coconut value chain. In this paper we report the development of an economic model of the coconut value chain that allows prediction of welfare impacts, and a quantitative representation of coconut yield that allows prediction of the impact of changing climatic conditions. The average outcome of 16 climate models was used to generate future climatic conditions, with two future climatic scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050 considered for three production regions. The most important yield estimate was a yield decline of more than 10 percent in the wet climatic zone due to the expected increase of maximum temperature. Without extra adaptation measures this is predicted to result in a loss to the industry of 4,795 Rs. Million annually by 2020, which is nearly 4.7 percent of the total value of the industry at equilibrium prices and quantities. The negative impact of climate change has the potential to be reduced with the implementation of additional adaptation practices. However, the cost effectiveness of these practices needs to be considered. Wider adoption of fertilizer application at specific times and moisture conservation practices are estimated to be economically beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Robert & Faggia, Rob, 2019. "The Cost of Climate Change to Agricultural Industries: Coconuts in Sri Lanka," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 10(05), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ijofsd:345349
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.345349
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/345349/files/THE%20COST%20OF%20CLIMATE%20CHANGE%20TO%20AGRICULTURAL%20INDUSTRIES.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.345349?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Winters & Rinku Murgai & Elisabeth Sadoulet & Alain de Janvry & George Frisvold, 1998. "Economic and Welfare Impacts of Climate Change on Developing Countries," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, July.
    2. Roley R. Piggott, 1992. "Some Old Truths Revisited," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 36(2), pages 117-140, August.
    3. Eriyagama, Nishadi & Smakhtin, Vladimir U. & Chandrapala, Lalith & Fernando, Karin, 2010. "Impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a review and preliminary vulnerability mapping," IWMI Research Reports 94787, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Eriyagama, Nishadi & Smakhtin, Vladimir & Chandrapala, L. & Fernando, K., 2010. "Impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a review and preliminary vulnerability mapping," IWMI Research Reports H043003, International Water Management Institute.
    5. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
    6. Naresh Kumar, S. & Aggarwal, P.K., 2013. "Climate change and coconut plantations in India: Impacts and potential adaptation gains," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 45-54.
    7. Mounter, Stuart W. & Griffith, Garry R. & Piggott, Roley R. & Fleming, Euan M. & Zhao, Xueyan, 2008. "Potential returns to the Australian sheep and wool industries from effective R&D and promotion investments and their sensitivities to assumed elasticity values," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 16.
    8. Eriyagama, Nishadi, 2010. "Climate change impacts on water resources and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a review and preliminary vulnerability mapping," IWMI Working Papers H042872, International Water Management Institute.
    9. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Bob & Faggian, Rob, 2017. "The Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Benefits from Investments in Adaptation Options for Sri Lankan Coconut Value Chains," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 2017(1), June.
    10. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Bob & Faggian, Rob, 2017. "The Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Benefits from Investments in Adaptation Options for Sri Lankan Coconut Value Chains," 2018 International European Forum (163rd EAAE Seminar), February 5-9, 2018, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 276938, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    11. Piggott, Roley R., 1992. "Some Old Truths Revisited," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 147251, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    12. Piggott, Roley R., 1992. "Some Old Truths Revisited," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 36(2), pages 1-24, August.
    13. Pathiraka, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Robert & Faggian, Robert, 2017. "Specifying and Testing an Equilibrium Displacement Model of the Coconut Market in Sri Lanka," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 25.
    14. Saaty, Thomas L., 1990. "How to make a decision: The analytic hierarchy process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 9-26, September.
    15. De Silva, C.S. & Weatherhead, E.K. & Knox, J.W. & Rodriguez-Diaz, J.A., 2007. "Predicting the impacts of climate change--A case study of paddy irrigation water requirements in Sri Lanka," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 19-29, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Bob & Faggian, Rob, 2017. "The Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Benefits from Investments in Adaptation Options for Sri Lankan Coconut Value Chains," 2018 International European Forum (163rd EAAE Seminar), February 5-9, 2018, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 276938, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    2. Pathiraja, Erandathie & Griffith, Garry & Farquharson, Bob & Faggian, Rob, 2017. "The Economic Cost of Climate Change and the Benefits from Investments in Adaptation Options for Sri Lankan Coconut Value Chains," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 2017(1), June.
    3. Noel Perceval Assogba & Daowei Zhang, 2020. "An Economic Analysis of Tropical Forest Resource Conservation in a Protected Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-12, July.
    4. Sean A. Cahill, 1997. "Calculating The Rate Of Decoupling For Crops Under Cap/Oilseeds Reform," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1‐3), pages 349-378, January.
    5. Amarasingha, R.P.R.K. & Suriyagoda, L.D.B. & Marambe, B. & Gaydon, D.S. & Galagedara, L.W. & Punyawardena, R. & Silva, G.L.L.P. & Nidumolu, U. & Howden, M., 2015. "Simulation of crop and water productivity for rice (Oryza sativa L.) using APSIM under diverse agro-climatic conditions and water management techniques in Sri Lanka," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 132-143.
    6. Lavoie, Nathalie, 2002. "Price Discrimination in the Context of Vertical Differentiation: An Application to Canadian Wheat Exports," Research Reports 25210, University of Connecticut, Food Marketing Policy Center.
    7. Zhiyi Lin & Minerva Singh, 2024. "Assessing Coastal Vulnerability and Evaluating the Effectiveness of Natural Habitats in Enhancing Coastal Resilience: A Case Study in Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-23, January.
    8. Seyoum, Emayenesh & Goddard, Ellen & MacLaren, Donald & Griffith, Garry, 2002. "Modelling World Dairy Trade: The Potential Impact of Officially Supported Export Credits on the Australian Dairy Industry," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 183422, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    9. Rickard, Bradley J. & Gonsalves, Jana L., 2008. "How would compliance with dietary recommendations affect revenues for agricultural producers?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 422-433, October.
    10. Benjamin Henderson & Lynn Henry & Gordon MacAulay & Jen Tatuh, 2010. "Potential Payoff from R&D in the Coconut Industry of North Sulawesi, Indonesia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 69-85, March.
    11. Oz Sahin & Sherif Mohamed, 2014. "Coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise: a spatial–temporal assessment framework," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 395-414, January.
    12. James, Jennifer S., 1999. "Endogenous Quality And Agricultural Policy Analysis," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21634, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Ambarawati, I Gusti Agung Ayu & Zhao, Xueyan & Griffith, Garry R. & Piggott, Roley R., 2003. "Distribution of Gains from Cattle Development in a Multi-Stage Production System: The Case of the Bali Beef Industry," 2003 Conference (47th), February 12-14, 2003, Fremantle, Australia 57829, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    14. Rickard, Brad & Gergaud, Olivier & Hu, Wenjing, 2014. "Trade liberalization in the presence of domestic regulations: Impacts of the proposed EU-U.S. free trade agreement on wine markets," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170462, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Ying Lin & Henry W. Kinnucan, 2020. "The optimal export tax for a primary commodity in a vertical market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 909-922, November.
    16. Ambarawati, I Gusti Agung Ayu & Zhao, Xueyan & Griffith, Garry R. & Piggott, Roley R., 2004. "The Cost to the Bali Beef Industry of the October 2002 Terrorist Attack," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 12.
    17. X. Zhao & J.D. Mullen & G.R. Griffith & R.R. Piggott & W.E. Griffiths, 2002. "The Economic Incidence of R&D and Promotion Investments in the Australian Beef Industry," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 16/02, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    18. Huang, Hsin & van Tongeren, Frank & Dewbre, Joe Dewbre, Joe & van Meijl, Hans, 2004. "A New Representation of Agricultural Production Technology in GTAP," Conference papers 330233, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Lavoie, Nathalie, 2002. "An Empirical Evaluation Of The Canadian Wheat Board'S Ability To Price Discriminate In Bread Wheat Exports," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19646, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    20. Zhao, Xueyan & Mullen, John D. & Griffith, Garry R. & Griffiths, William E. & Piggott, Roley R., 2000. "An Equilibrium Displacement Model of the Australian Beef Industry," Research Reports 28007, New South Wales Department of Primary Industries Research Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Climate Change;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:ijofsd:345349. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/centmde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.