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A Forecast and Mitigation Model of Construction Performance by Assessing Detailed Engineering Maturity at Key Milestones for Offshore EPC Mega-Projects

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  • Myung-Hun Kim

    (Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology (GIFT), Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea
    Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), Engineering Management Team, 400 Bangeojinsunhwan-doro, Dong-gu, Ulsan 44114, Korea)

  • Eul-Bum Lee

    (Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology (GIFT), Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea
    Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea)

  • Han-Suk Choi

    (Graduate Institute of Ferrous Technology (GIFT), Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH), 77 Cheongam-Ro, Nam-Ku, Pohang 37673, Korea)

Abstract

The main subject of this research is to develop a forecast and mitigation model of schedule and cost performance during a detailed engineering stage of offshore engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) projects. The weight factors of major elements in detailed engineering completion rating index system (DECRIS) were measured using a fuzzy inference system (FIS) and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). At five key engineering milestones, from an EPC contract being awarded to the start of construction, detailed engineering maturities were assessed in fourteen historical offshore EPC projects using the DECRIS model. DECRIS cutoff scores for successful project execution were defined at the key engineering milestones. A schedule and cost performance was forecasted and validated through comparison of DECRIS and other models using statistical confidence of a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and a regression analysis. As a mitigation method for engineering risks to EPC contractors, engineering resource enhancement is recommended for trade-off optimization of cost overrun using a Monte Carlo simulation. The main contribution of this research is that EPC contractors could continuously forecast construction costs and schedule performance utilizing the DECRIS model, and could review the adequacy of engineering resources, assessing the trade-off between said resources and cost/schedule risk mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Myung-Hun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee & Han-Suk Choi, 2019. "A Forecast and Mitigation Model of Construction Performance by Assessing Detailed Engineering Maturity at Key Milestones for Offshore EPC Mega-Projects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:5:p:1256-:d:209464
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hui-Ping Tserng & I-Cheng Cho & Chun-Hung Chen & Yu-Fan Liu, 2021. "Developing a Risk Management Process for Infrastructure Projects Using IDEF0," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-22, June.
    2. Myung-Hun Kim & Eul-Bum Lee, 2019. "A Forecast Model for the Level of Engineering Maturity Impact on Contractor’s Procurement and Construction Costs for Offshore EPC Megaprojects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Georgios K. Koulinas & Alexandros S. Xanthopoulos & Konstantinos A. Sidas & Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis, 2021. "Risks Ranking in a Desalination Plant Construction Project with a Hybrid AHP, Risk Matrix, and Simulation-Based Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3221-3233, August.
    4. Byung-Yun Son & Eul-Bum Lee, 2019. "Using Text Mining to Estimate Schedule Delay Risk of 13 Offshore Oil and Gas EPC Case Studies During the Bidding Process," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-25, May.
    5. Carlos Araújo-Rey & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2021. "An Approach to the Analysis of Causes of Delays in Industrial Construction Projects through Planning and Statistical Computing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-21, April.
    6. Jesus Javier Losada-Maseda & Laura Castro-Santos & Manuel Ángel Graña-López & Ana Isabel García-Diez & Almudena Filgueira-Vizoso, 2020. "Analysis of Contracts to Build Energy Infrastructures to Optimize the OPEX," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-17, September.
    7. Guangbin Wang & Huan Liu & Heng Li & Xiaochun Luo & Jiaxi Liu, 2020. "A Building Project-Based Industrialized Construction Maturity Model Involving Organizational Enablers: A Multi-Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-35, May.

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