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Quantifying the Uncertainties in Data-Driven Models for Reservoir Inflow Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoli Zhang

    (North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power)

  • Haixia Wang

    (Ludong University)

  • Anbang Peng

    (Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
    Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute)

  • Wenchuan Wang

    (North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power)

  • Baojian Li

    (North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power)

  • Xudong Huang

    (North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power)

Abstract

Reservoir inflow prediction is subject to high uncertainties in data-driven modelling. In this study, a decomposition scheme is proposed to evaluate the individual and combined contributions of uncertainties from input sets and data-driven models to the total predictive uncertainty. Six variables (i.e., inflow (Q), precipitation (P), relative humidity (H), minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and precipitation forecast (F)), and three data-driven models (i.e., artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS)) are used to produce an ensemble of 10-day inflow forecast for Huanren reservoir in China, and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) method is employed to decompose the uncertainty. The ensemble forecast results show that when the three variables, i.e., Q, P and F, are used only, the predictive accuracy of the data-driven models is very high and the addition of the other three variables, i. e., H, Tmin and Tmax, can slightly improve the predictive accuracy. The decomposition results indicate that the input set is the dominant source of uncertainty, the contribution of the data-driven model is limited and has a strong seasonal variation: larger in winter and summer, smaller in spring and autumn. Most importantly, the interactive contribution of the input set and the data-driven model to the total predictive uncertainty is very high and is more significant than the individual contribution from the model itself, implying that the combined effects of the input set and the data-driven model should be carefully considered in the modelling process.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoli Zhang & Haixia Wang & Anbang Peng & Wenchuan Wang & Baojian Li & Xudong Huang, 2020. "Quantifying the Uncertainties in Data-Driven Models for Reservoir Inflow Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1479-1493, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:34:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02514-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02514-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rajeev Sahay & Ayush Srivastava, 2014. "Predicting Monsoon Floods in Rivers Embedding Wavelet Transform, Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(2), pages 301-317, January.
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    3. Jehangir Awan & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2014. "Improving ANFIS Based Model for Long-term Dam Inflow Prediction by Incorporating Monthly Rainfall Forecasts," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1199, March.
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    2. Mona Nemati & Mahmoud Mohammad Rezapour Tabari & Seyed Abbas Hosseini & Saman Javadi, 2021. "A Novel Approach Using Hybrid Fuzzy Vertex Method-MATLAB Framework Based on GMS Model for Quantifying Predictive Uncertainty Associated with Groundwater Flow and Transport Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4189-4215, September.
    3. Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki & Saeed Farzin & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi & Hojat Karami, 2021. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Frequency by Using Hybrid Machine Learning Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 199-223, January.

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