IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v35y2021i1d10.1007_s11269-020-02719-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Frequency by Using Hybrid Machine Learning Methods

Author

Listed:
  • Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki

    (Semnan University)

  • Saeed Farzin

    (Semnan University)

  • Sayed-Farhad Mousavi

    (Semnan University)

  • Hojat Karami

    (Semnan University)

Abstract

In the present study, for the first time, a new framework is used by combining metaheuristic algorithms, decomposition and machine learning for flood frequency analysis under climate-change conditions and application of HadCM3 (A2 and B2 scenarios), CGCM3 (A2 and A1B scenarios) and CanESM2 (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) in global climate models (GCM). In the proposed framework, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and M5 Model tree are used for classification of precipitation (wet and dry days), whale optimization algorithm (WOA) is considered for training least square support vector machine (LSSVM), wavelet transform (WT) is used for decomposition of precipitation and temperature, LSSVM-WOA, LSSVM, K nearest neighbor (KNN) and artificial neural network (ANN) are performed for downscaling precipitation and temperature, and discharge is simulated under present period (1972–2000), near future (2020–2040) and far future (2070–2100). Log normal distribution is used for flood frequency analysis. Furthermore, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and fuzzy method are employed for uncertainty analysis. Karun3 Basin, in southwest of Iran, is considered as a case study. Results indicated that MARS performed better than M5 model tree. In downscaling, ANN and LSSVM_WOA slightly outperformed other machine learning algorithms. Results of simulating the discharge showed superiority of LSSVM_WOA_WT algorithm (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.911). Results of flood frequency analysis revealed that 200-year discharge decreases for all scenarios, except CanESM2 RCP2.6 scenario, in the near future. In the near and far future periods, it is obvious from ANOVA uncertainty analysis that hydrological models are one of the most important sources of uncertainty. Based on the fuzzy uncertainty analysis, HadCM3 model has lower uncertainty in higher return periods (up to 60% lower than other models in 1000-year return period).

Suggested Citation

  • Mahdi Valikhan Anaraki & Saeed Farzin & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi & Hojat Karami, 2021. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Flood Frequency by Using Hybrid Machine Learning Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 199-223, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02719-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-020-02719-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-020-02719-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-020-02719-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F. Wang & G. H. Huang & Y. Fan & Y. P. Li, 2020. "Robust Subsampling ANOVA Methods for Sensitivity Analysis of Water Resource and Environmental Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(10), pages 3199-3217, August.
    2. Kwan Lee & Wei-Chiao Hung & Chung-Chieh Meng, 2008. "Deterministic Insight into ANN Model Performance for Storm Runoff Simulation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(1), pages 67-82, January.
    3. Du, Pei & Wang, Jianzhou & Yang, Wendong & Niu, Tong, 2018. "Multi-step ahead forecasting in electrical power system using a hybrid forecasting system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 533-550.
    4. Kai Lun Chong & Sai Hin Lai & Yu Yao & Ali Najah Ahmed & Wan Zurina Wan Jaafar & Ahmed El-Shafie, 2020. "Performance Enhancement Model for Rainfall Forecasting Utilizing Integrated Wavelet-Convolutional Neural Network," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2371-2387, June.
    5. Muhammad Azmat & Muhammad Uzair Qamar & Shakil Ahmed & Muhammad Adnan Shahid & Ejaz Hussain & Sajjad Ahmad & Rao Arsalan Khushnood, 2018. "Ensembling Downscaling Techniques and Multiple GCMs to Improve Climate Change Predictions in Cryosphere Scarcely-Gauged Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3155-3174, July.
    6. Jan Niel & E. Uytven & P. Willems, 2019. "Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Impact on River Flow Extremes Based on a Large Multi-Model Ensemble," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4319-4333, September.
    7. Majid Mohammadi & Saeed Farzin & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi & Hojat Karami, 2019. "Investigation of a New Hybrid Optimization Algorithm Performance in the Optimal Operation of Multi-Reservoir Benchmark Systems," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(14), pages 4767-4782, November.
    8. Krishna Singh & Mahesh Pal & V. Singh, 2010. "Estimation of Mean Annual Flood in Indian Catchments Using Backpropagation Neural Network and M5 Model Tree," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(10), pages 2007-2019, August.
    9. Peiman Parisouj & Hamid Mohebzadeh & Taesam Lee, 2020. "Employing Machine Learning Algorithms for Streamflow Prediction: A Case Study of Four River Basins with Different Climatic Zones in the United States," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4113-4131, October.
    10. Sinan Jasim Hadi & Mustafa Tombul, 2018. "Streamflow Forecasting Using Four Wavelet Transformation Combinations Approaches with Data-Driven Models: A Comparative Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(14), pages 4661-4679, November.
    11. Roja Najafi & Masoud Reza Hessami Kermani, 2017. "Uncertainty Modeling of Statistical Downscaling to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Temperature and Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(6), pages 1843-1858, April.
    12. Mahdi Valikhan-Anaraki & Sayed-Farhad Mousavi & Saeed Farzin & Hojat Karami & Mohammad Ehteram & Ozgur Kisi & Chow Ming Fai & Md. Shabbir Hossain & Gasim Hayder & Ali Najah Ahmed & Amr H. El-Shafie & , 2019. "Development of a Novel Hybrid Optimization Algorithm for Minimizing Irrigation Deficiencies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, April.
    13. Xiaoli Zhang & Haixia Wang & Anbang Peng & Wenchuan Wang & Baojian Li & Xudong Huang, 2020. "Quantifying the Uncertainties in Data-Driven Models for Reservoir Inflow Prediction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(4), pages 1479-1493, March.
    14. Maryam Malekzadeh & Saeid Kardar & Keivan Saeb & Saeid Shabanlou & Lobat Taghavi, 2019. "A Novel Approach for Prediction of Monthly Ground Water Level Using a Hybrid Wavelet and Non-Tuned Self-Adaptive Machine Learning Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1609-1628, March.
    15. Fereshteh Modaresi & Shahab Araghinejad & Kumars Ebrahimi, 2018. "A Comparative Assessment of Artificial Neural Network, Generalized Regression Neural Network, Least-Square Support Vector Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbor Regression for Monthly Streamflow Forecasti," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 243-258, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh & Saeed Farzin, 2022. "Introducing a Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Model and Developing its Performance in Estimating Water Quality Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3901-3927, August.
    2. Srishti Gaur & Arnab Bandyopadhyay & Rajendra Singh, 2021. "From Changing Environment to Changing Extremes: Exploring the Future Streamflow and Associated Uncertainties Through Integrated Modelling System," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1889-1911, April.
    3. Mona Nemati & Mahmoud Mohammad Rezapour Tabari & Seyed Abbas Hosseini & Saman Javadi, 2021. "A Novel Approach Using Hybrid Fuzzy Vertex Method-MATLAB Framework Based on GMS Model for Quantifying Predictive Uncertainty Associated with Groundwater Flow and Transport Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4189-4215, September.
    4. Jongsung Kim & Myungjin Lee & Heechan Han & Donghyun Kim & Yunghye Bae & Hung Soo Kim, 2022. "Case Study: Development of the CNN Model Considering Teleconnection for Spatial Downscaling of Precipitation in a Climate Change Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    5. Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh & Saeed Farzin, 2021. "A Novel LSSVM Model Integrated with GBO Algorithm to Assessment of Water Quality Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3939-3968, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manish Goyal & C. Ojha, 2011. "Estimation of Scour Downstream of a Ski-Jump Bucket Using Support Vector and M5 Model Tree," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(9), pages 2177-2195, July.
    2. Yuri B. Kirsta & Ol’ga V. Lovtskaya, 2021. "Good-quality Long-term Forecast of Spring-summer Flood Runoff for Mountain Rivers," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(3), pages 811-825, February.
    3. Wenxin Xu & Jie Chen & Xunchang J. Zhang, 2022. "Scale Effects of the Monthly Streamflow Prediction Using a State-of-the-art Deep Learning Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3609-3625, August.
    4. Rana Muhammad Adnan Ikram & Leonardo Goliatt & Ozgur Kisi & Slavisa Trajkovic & Shamsuddin Shahid, 2022. "Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy for Improving Machine Learning Approaches in Streamflow Prediction," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(16), pages 1-30, August.
    5. Hadi Galavi & Majid Mirzaei, 2020. "Analyzing Uncertainty Drivers of Climate Change Impact Studies in Tropical and Arid Climates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(6), pages 2097-2109, April.
    6. Reyhaneh Rahimi & Hassan Tavakol-Davani & Mohsen Nasseri, 2021. "An Uncertainty-Based Regional Comparative Analysis on the Performance of Different Bias Correction Methods in Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(8), pages 2503-2518, June.
    7. Mojtaba Kadkhodazadeh & Saeed Farzin, 2021. "A Novel LSSVM Model Integrated with GBO Algorithm to Assessment of Water Quality Parameters," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3939-3968, September.
    8. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    9. Jew Das & Alin Treesa & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Modelling Impacts of Climate Change on a River Basin: Analysis of Uncertainty Using REA & Possibilistic Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(15), pages 4833-4852, December.
    10. Rana Muhammad Adnan & Zhongmin Liang & Xiaohui Yuan & Ozgur Kisi & Muhammad Akhlaq & Binquan Li, 2019. "Comparison of LSSVR, M5RT, NF-GP, and NF-SC Models for Predictions of Hourly Wind Speed and Wind Power Based on Cross-Validation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-22, January.
    11. Muhammad Azmat & Muhammad Uzair Qamar & Shakil Ahmed & Muhammad Adnan Shahid & Ejaz Hussain & Sajjad Ahmad & Rao Arsalan Khushnood, 2018. "Ensembling Downscaling Techniques and Multiple GCMs to Improve Climate Change Predictions in Cryosphere Scarcely-Gauged Catchment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(9), pages 3155-3174, July.
    12. Stephen Afrifa & Tao Zhang & Peter Appiahene & Vijayakumar Varadarajan, 2022. "Mathematical and Machine Learning Models for Groundwater Level Changes: A Systematic Review and Bibliographic Analysis," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-31, August.
    13. Saeed, Muhammad Abid & Ahmed, Zahoor & Zhang, Weidong, 2020. "Wind energy potential and economic analysis with a comparison of different methods for determining the optimal distribution parameters," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1092-1109.
    14. Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia & Li, Qiwei & Ma, Xuejiao, 2018. "Comparison of seven methods for determining the optimal statistical distribution parameters: A case study of wind energy assessment in the large-scale wind farms of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 432-448.
    15. Ibrahim, Muhammad Sohail & Dong, Wei & Yang, Qiang, 2020. "Machine learning driven smart electric power systems: Current trends and new perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    16. Wang, Jianzhou & An, Yining & Li, Zhiwu & Lu, Haiyan, 2022. "A novel combined forecasting model based on neural networks, deep learning approaches, and multi-objective optimization for short-term wind speed forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    17. Jiyang Wang & Yuyang Gao & Xuejun Chen, 2018. "A Novel Hybrid Interval Prediction Approach Based on Modified Lower Upper Bound Estimation in Combination with Multi-Objective Salp Swarm Algorithm for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-30, June.
    18. Sahebkar Farkhani, Jalal & Çelik, Özgür & Ma, Kaiqi & Bak, Claus Leth & Chen, Zhe, 2024. "A comprehensive review of potential protection methods for VSC multi-terminal HVDC systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    19. Meng, Anbo & Zhu, Zibin & Deng, Weisi & Ou, Zuhong & Lin, Shan & Wang, Chenen & Xu, Xuancong & Wang, Xiaolin & Yin, Hao & Luo, Jianqiang, 2022. "A novel wind power prediction approach using multivariate variational mode decomposition and multi-objective crisscross optimization based deep extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    20. Pin-Chun Huang & Kuo-Lin Hsu & Kwan Tun Lee, 2021. "Improvement of Two-Dimensional Flow-Depth Prediction Based on Neural Network Models By Preprocessing Hydrological and Geomorphological Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(3), pages 1079-1100, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:35:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1007_s11269-020-02719-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.