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Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall

Author

Listed:
  • Ivana Cvijanovic

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Benjamin D. Santer

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Céline Bonfils

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • Donald D. Lucas

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

  • John C. H. Chiang

    (University of California)

  • Susan Zimmerman

    (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)

Abstract

From 2012 to 2016, California experienced one of the worst droughts since the start of observational records. As in previous dry periods, precipitation-inducing winter storms were steered away from California by a persistent atmospheric ridging system in the North Pacific. Here we identify a new link between Arctic sea-ice loss and the North Pacific geopotential ridge development. In a two-step teleconnection, sea-ice changes lead to reorganization of tropical convection that in turn triggers an anticyclonic response over the North Pacific, resulting in significant drying over California. These findings suggest that the ability of climate models to accurately estimate future precipitation changes over California is also linked to the fidelity with which future sea-ice changes are simulated. We conclude that sea-ice loss of the magnitude expected in the next decades could substantially impact California’s precipitation, thus highlighting another mechanism by which human-caused climate change could exacerbate future California droughts.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivana Cvijanovic & Benjamin D. Santer & Céline Bonfils & Donald D. Lucas & John C. H. Chiang & Susan Zimmerman, 2017. "Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:8:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-017-01907-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-01907-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Beganskas & Kyle S. Young & Andrew T. Fisher & Ryan Harmon & Sacha Lozano, 2019. "Runoff Modeling of a Coastal Basin to Assess Variations in Response to Shifting Climate and Land Use: Implications for Managed Recharge," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1683-1698, March.
    2. Srivastava, Lorie & Hand, Michael S. & Kim, John, 2018. "Projecting the Provision and Value of Water from National Forests in Southern California under Ecological Change," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274323, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Cakir, Metin & Beatty, Timothy & Park, Timothy A., 2018. "Effects of California Drought on Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Prices over Time and across Space," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273825, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Zexi Shen & Qiang Zhang & Vijay P. Singh & Yadu Pokhrel & Jianping Li & Chong-Yu Xu & Wenhuan Wu, 2022. "Drying in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean contributed to terrestrial water storage depletion across Eurasia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Cai, Qingyin & Çakır, Metin & Beatty, Timothy & Park, Timothy A., 2022. "Drought and the Specialty Crops Production in California," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322530, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Srivastava, Lorie & Hand, Michael & Kim, John & Sánchez, José J., 2018. "Projecting the Provision and Value of Water from National Forests in Southern California under Ecological Change," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274840, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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