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Alpine foreland running drier? Sensitivity of a drought vulnerable catchment to changes in climate, land use, and water management

Author

Listed:
  • Clara Hohmann

    (University of Graz
    University of Graz)

  • Gottfried Kirchengast

    (University of Graz
    University of Graz
    University of Graz)

  • Steffen Birk

    (University of Graz
    University of Graz)

Abstract

Southeastern Austria as part of the southeastern Alpine forelands experiences an increase of temperature and a tendency of decreasing precipitation. Especially in summer, the temperature strongly increased by about 0.7 °C per decade since the 1970s. Drought vulnerability under climate change is therefore a key question in this region. Here, we address this question by exploring the hydrological sensitivity of the Raab catchment in Austria (area 987 km2), a typical catchment in these Alpine forelands. Using the process-oriented Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) over 1982–2011, we focus on low-flow conditions during extended summer (May–September) and analyze the catchment’s runoff sensitivity to climate change, but also land use and water management change. We find that climate change drivers dominate the summertime runoff response (decrease > 40/> 70%), based on moderate and strong climate change cases in the region (temperature + 2/+ 4 K, precipitation − 15/− 30%). Land use changes towards more dry and sealed areas enhance surface runoff and thus may lead to somewhat increased flood peaks. In contrast, water withdrawal for irrigation reduces runoff during low-flow periods in the summer when the irrigation demand is high. Although the impact of these non-climatic drivers on runoff generally is lower than that of the climate change considered, their interactive effects may reinforce the catchment’s tendency of running drier during summer. While more detailed scenario-based assessments are needed to further assess drought risks, this initial study provides clear evidence for the vulnerability of Alpine foreland catchments to increasing summer dryness under climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Clara Hohmann & Gottfried Kirchengast & Steffen Birk, 2018. "Alpine foreland running drier? Sensitivity of a drought vulnerable catchment to changes in climate, land use, and water management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 179-193, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:147:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-017-2121-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2121-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Justin Sheffield & Eric F. Wood & Michael L. Roderick, 2012. "Little change in global drought over the past 60 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 491(7424), pages 435-438, November.
    2. Julie Vano & Dennis Lettenmaier, 2014. "A sensitivity-based approach to evaluating future changes in Colorado River discharge," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 621-634, February.
    3. Helge Bormann, 2011. "Sensitivity analysis of 18 different potential evapotranspiration models to observed climatic change at German climate stations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 729-753, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Beganskas & Kyle S. Young & Andrew T. Fisher & Ryan Harmon & Sacha Lozano, 2019. "Runoff Modeling of a Coastal Basin to Assess Variations in Response to Shifting Climate and Land Use: Implications for Managed Recharge," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1683-1698, March.
    2. Hasrul Hazman Hasan & Siti Fatin Mohd Razali & Nur Shazwani Muhammad & Asmadi Ahmad, 2022. "Modified Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Based on Spatial and Temporal Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-28, May.
    3. Hasrul Hazman Hasan & Siti Fatin Mohd Razali & Ahmad Zafuan Ibrahim Ahmad Zaki & Firdaus Mohamad Hamzah, 2019. "Integrated Hydrological-Hydraulic Model for Flood Simulation in Tropical Urban Catchment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-24, November.
    4. Pedro Pérez-Cutillas & Pedro Baños Páez & Isabel Banos-González, 2020. "Variability of Water Balance under Climate Change Scenarios. Implications for Sustainability in the Rhône River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.

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