IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/eartha/kmcty.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Detected Trends in Flood Magnitude and Shifts in the Timing of Floods of A Major River Basin in India, Linked To Anthropogenic Stressors?

Author

Listed:
  • Rama, Nandamuri Yamini
  • Ganguli, Poulomi
  • Chatterjee, Chandranath

Abstract

Analyzing of trends in flood magnitude and the timing of the dates of flood occurrences of large river basins across the globe are essential for understanding changes in water availability (high or low flows) and assessing the fidelity of global hydrological models. Our research is motivated by the recent six major consecutive floods in Mahanadi (years: 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2013) River Basin (MRB), which is one of the largest peninsular Rivers in India with a catchment area of 14,1589 km2. We examine the altered risk of flooding focusing on changes in the flood regimes and a shift in the timing of floods over the past four decades (1970-2016) using hydrometric observations across the MRB. A framework for identification of flood regime changes is developed using monsoonal maxima peak discharge (MMPD) and peak over threshold (POT) events at 24 stream gauges over the basin. We find a mix of (insignificant) up/downward trends in flood magnitude at Upper MRB (Region I). On the other hand, the middle reaches of the basin (Region II) showed an upward trend in flood magnitude, with a larger number of sites detect significant trends in flood magnitude for the POT events. Further, we find the downward trends in MMPD series at Region I is field significant (at 10% significance level) whereas none of the trends in POT series show field significance. Only a few stations detected abrupt changes in the flood time series, and they are spatially clustered at Region I, whereas Region II showed no evidence of change points. A delayed (or earlier) shift in flood timing is apparent for most of the sites, notwithstanding the mean date of flood occurrence is in August irrespective of the type of flood series. The outcomes of the study contribute to ensuring flood resilience at densely populated large river basins.

Suggested Citation

  • Rama, Nandamuri Yamini & Ganguli, Poulomi & Chatterjee, Chandranath, 2019. "Are Detected Trends in Flood Magnitude and Shifts in the Timing of Floods of A Major River Basin in India, Linked To Anthropogenic Stressors?," Earth Arxiv kmcty, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:eartha:kmcty
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/kmcty
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5cade523e3915600165e105c/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/kmcty?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. N. Pettitt, 1979. "A Non‐Parametric Approach to the Change‐Point Problem," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 28(2), pages 126-135, June.
    2. Julie Vano & Dennis Lettenmaier, 2014. "A sensitivity-based approach to evaluating future changes in Colorado River discharge," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 621-634, February.
    3. M. Monirul Qader Mirza, 2003. "Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 233-248, September.
    4. Yukiko Hirabayashi & Roobavannan Mahendran & Sujan Koirala & Lisako Konoshima & Dai Yamazaki & Satoshi Watanabe & Hyungjun Kim & Shinjiro Kanae, 2013. "Global flood risk under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 816-821, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dilshad Ahmad & Muhammad Afzal, 2021. "Impact of climate change on pastoralists’ resilience and sustainable mitigation in Punjab, Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11406-11426, August.
    2. Li, Bingbing & Biswas, Asim & Wang, Yunqiang & Li, Zhi, 2021. "Identifying the dominant effects of climate and land use change on soil water balance in deep loessial vadose zone," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    3. Richard Friend & Pakamas Thinphanga, 2018. "Urban Water Crises under Future Uncertainties: The Case of Institutional and Infrastructure Complexity in Khon Kaen, Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, October.
    4. Max Tesselaar & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Toon Haer & Paul Hudson & Timothy Tiggeloven & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2020. "Regional Inequalities in Flood Insurance Affordability and Uptake under Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-30, October.
    5. Dayang Wang & Dagang Wang & Chongxun Mo & Yi Du, 2021. "Risk variation of reservoir regulation during flood season based on bivariate statistical approach under climate change: a case study in the Chengbihe reservoir, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1585-1608, September.
    6. Natthachet Tangdamrongsub & Chalita Forgotson & Chandana Gangodagamage & Joshua Forgotson, 2021. "The analysis of using satellite soil moisture observations for flood detection, evaluating over the Thailand’s Great Flood of 2011," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(3), pages 2879-2904, September.
    7. Xin Wen & Ana María Alarcón Ferreira & Lynn M. Rae & Hirmand Saffari & Zafar Adeel & Laura A. Bakkensen & Karla M. Méndez Estrada & Gregg M. Garfin & Renee A. McPherson & Ernesto Franco Vargas, 2022. "A Comprehensive Methodology for Evaluating the Economic Impacts of Floods: An Application to Canada, Mexico, and the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-27, October.
    8. Haixing Liu & Yuntao Wang & Chi Zhang & Albert S. Chen & Guangtao Fu, 2018. "Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(1), pages 1-18, October.
    9. Franziska Piontek & Matthias Kalkuhl & Elmar Kriegler & Anselm Schultes & Marian Leimbach & Ottmar Edenhofer & Nico Bauer, 2019. "Economic Growth Effects of Alternative Climate Change Impact Channels in Economic Modeling," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(4), pages 1357-1385, August.
    10. Md. Uzzal Mia & Tahmida Naher Chowdhury & Rabin Chakrabortty & Subodh Chandra Pal & Mohammad Khalid Al-Sadoon & Romulus Costache & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam, 2023. "Flood Susceptibility Modeling Using an Advanced Deep Learning-Based Iterative Classifier Optimizer," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, April.
    11. Wang, Derek D. & Sueyoshi, Toshiyuki, 2018. "Climate change mitigation targets set by global firms: Overview and implications for renewable energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 386-398.
    12. Kazi Ali Tamaddun & Ajay Kalra & Sajjad Ahmad, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Variation in the Continental US Streamflow in Association with Large-Scale Climate Signals Across Multiple Spectral Bands," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(6), pages 1947-1968, April.
    13. Roopam Shukla & Ankit Agarwal & Kamna Sachdeva & Juergen Kurths & P. K. Joshi, 2019. "Climate change perception: an analysis of climate change and risk perceptions among farmer types of Indian Western Himalayas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 103-119, January.
    14. Alina Bărbulescu & Cristian Ștefan Dumitriu, 2021. "On the Connection between the GEP Performances and the Time Series Properties," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-19, August.
    15. S. A. Mashi & A. I. Inkani & Oghenejeabor Obaro & A. S. Asanarimam, 2020. "Community perception, response and adaptation strategies towards flood risk in a traditional African city," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1727-1759, September.
    16. Alfredas Račkauskas & Martin Wendler, 2020. "Convergence of U-processes in Hölder spaces with application to robust detection of a changed segment," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1409-1435, August.
    17. Catherine Araujo Bonjean & Alioune N’diaye & Olivier Santoni, 2019. "Who benefits from the return of the rains? The case of the Ferlo breeders in Senegal [A qui profite le retour des pluies ? Le cas des éleveurs du Ferlo]," CERDI Working papers halshs-02419601, HAL.
    18. Maruyama Rentschler,Jun Erik & Salhab,Melda, 2020. "People in Harm's Way : Flood Exposure and Poverty in 189 Countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9447, The World Bank.
    19. Shuhei Yoshimoto & Giriraj Amarnath, 2018. "Application of a flood inundation model to analyze the potential impacts of a flood control plan in Mundeni Aru river basin, Sri Lanka," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 491-513, March.
    20. Mohamed Boly, 2018. "CO 2 mitigation in developing countries: the role of foreign aid," Working Papers halshs-01740881, HAL.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:eartha:kmcty. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://eartharxiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.