IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v30y2016i2d10.1007_s11269-015-1194-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins

Author

Listed:
  • Hong Li

    (University of Oslo
    Norwegian Meteorological Institute)

  • Chong-Yu Xu

    (University of Oslo)

  • Stein Beldring

    (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate)

  • Lena Merete Tallaksen

    (University of Oslo)

  • Sharad K. Jain

    (National Institute of Hydrology)

Abstract

Climate change has significant implications for glaciers and water resources in the Himalayan region. There is an urgent need to improve our current knowledge and methods in quantifying changes in water resources in this region. This study uses an integrated approach that couples a hydrological model and a glacier retreat model to assess the future water resources for two Himalayan basins. They are the Chamkhar Chhu basin in Bhutan (Eastern Himalayas) and the Beas basin in India (Western Himalayas). The future climate is simulated by two Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for south Asia under three Representative Concentration Pathways (Rcp2.6, Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5). The six climate projections for the period 2010–2100 indicate significant warming effects; however, projected changes in precipitation are not consistent. Discrepancies in precipitation are noteworthy between the RCMs and greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. The glaciers in the Chamkhar Chhu basin are predicted to disappear or reduce to a small size before the 2050s, whereas the glaciers in the Beas basin are expected to lose mass before the 2060s, and afterwards to gain mass under Rcp2.6 and Rcp4.5, or to melt at a high rate under Rcp8.5. The available water resources per capita of two basins are projected to decrease in the period 2010–2050. The decreasing water resources are jointly induced by climate change and population growth. The latter is responsible for roughly 40 % of the water declines. Both basins are facing water shortages at present and the water shortages will intensify in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Li & Chong-Yu Xu & Stein Beldring & Lena Merete Tallaksen & Sharad K. Jain, 2016. "Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 843-859, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-015-1194-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1194-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-015-1194-5
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-015-1194-5?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea E Gaughan & Forrest R Stevens & Catherine Linard & Peng Jia & Andrew J Tatem, 2013. "High Resolution Population Distribution Maps for Southeast Asia in 2010 and 2015," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(2), pages 1-11, February.
    2. Joeri Rogelj & Malte Meinshausen & Reto Knutti, 2012. "Global warming under old and new scenarios using IPCC climate sensitivity range estimates," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 248-253, April.
    3. T. P. Barnett & J. C. Adam & D. P. Lettenmaier, 2005. "Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 303-309, November.
    4. Walter Immerzeel & L. Beek & M. Konz & A. Shrestha & M. Bierkens, 2012. "Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 721-736, February.
    5. Deepak Srivastava & Amit Kumar & Akshaya Verma & Siddharth Swaroop, 2014. "Analysis of Climate and Melt-runoff in Dunagiri Glacier of Garhwal Himalaya (India)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3035-3055, August.
    6. Andreas Kääb & Etienne Berthier & Christopher Nuth & Julie Gardelle & Yves Arnaud, 2012. "Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas," Nature, Nature, vol. 488(7412), pages 495-498, August.
    7. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    8. B. Fiseha & S. Setegn & A. Melesse & E. Volpi & A. Fiori, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Upper Tiber River Basin Using Bias Corrected Regional Climate Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1327-1343, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sarmad Dashti Latif & Ali Najah Ahmed, 2023. "A review of deep learning and machine learning techniques for hydrological inflow forecasting," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(11), pages 12189-12216, November.
    2. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Huaiwei Sun & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Muhammad Tayyab, 2017. "Impact of Distribution Type in Bayes Probability Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 961-977, February.
    3. Wei Li & Jianzhong Zhou & Lu Chen & Kuaile Feng & Hairong Zhang & Changqing Meng & Na Sun, 2019. "Upper and Lower Bound Interval Forecasting Methodology Based on Ideal Boundary and Multiple Linear Regression Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(3), pages 1203-1215, February.
    4. Simmons, Aaron T. & Perovic, David J. & Roth, Guy, 2022. "Making waves – Are water scarcity footprints of irrigated agricultural commodities suitable to inform consumer decisions?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    5. Chandra Lal Pandey, 2021. "Managing urban water security: challenges and prospects in Nepal," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 241-257, January.
    6. Shashidhar Kumar Jha & Ajeet Kumar Negi & Juha Mikael Alatalo & Vignesh Prabhu & Mani Bhushan Jha & Hemant Kumar, 2022. "Forest Degradation Index: A Tool for Forest Vulnerability Assessment in Indian Western Himalaya," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-29, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong Li & Chong-Yu Xu & Stein Beldring & Lena Tallaksen & Sharad Jain, 2016. "Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 843-859, January.
    2. Xiaofeng Ren & Erwen Xu & C. Ken Smith & Michael Vrahnakis & Wenmao Jing & Weijun Zhao & Rongxin Wang & Xin Jia & Chunming Yan & Ruiming Liu, 2024. "Changes in Surface Runoff and Temporal Dispersion in a Restored Montane Watershed on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo & Jasia Bashir & Irfan Rashid, 2020. "Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1473-1491, October.
    4. Rajesh Kumar & Shaktiman Singh & Ramesh Kumar & Atar Singh & Anshuman Bhardwaj & Lydia Sam & Surjeet Singh Randhawa & Akhilesh Gupta, 2016. "Development of a Glacio-hydrological Model for Discharge and Mass Balance Reconstruction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3475-3492, August.
    5. Rajiv Chaturvedi & Anil Kulkarni & Yogesh Karyakarte & Jaideep Joshi & G. Bala, 2014. "Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(2), pages 315-328, March.
    6. Haoyu Jin & Qin Ju & Zhongbo Yu & Jie Hao & Huanghe Gu & Henan Gu & Wei Li, 2019. "Simulation of snowmelt runoff and sensitivity analysis in the Nyang River Basin, southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 931-950, November.
    7. Keyvan Malek & Patrick Reed & Jennifer Adam & Tina Karimi & Michael Brady, 2020. "Water rights shape crop yield and revenue volatility tradeoffs for adaptation in snow dependent systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Muhammad Shafeeque & Yi Luo & Arfan Arshad & Sher Muhammad & Muhammad Ashraf & Quoc Bao Pham, 2023. "Assessment of climate change impacts on glacio-hydrological processes and their variations within critical zone," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2721-2748, February.
    9. Molini, A. & Talkner, P. & Katul, G.G. & Porporato, A., 2011. "First passage time statistics of Brownian motion with purely time dependent drift and diffusion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 1841-1852.
    10. Xiuchen Wu & Hongyan Liu & Dali Guo & Oleg A Anenkhonov & Natalya K Badmaeva & Denis V Sandanov, 2012. "Growth Decline Linked to Warming-Induced Water Limitation in Hemi-Boreal Forests," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(8), pages 1-12, August.
    11. Jidong Wu & Ying Li & Ning Li & Peijun Shi, 2018. "Development of an Asset Value Map for Disaster Risk Assessment in China by Spatial Disaggregation Using Ancillary Remote Sensing Data," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 17-30, January.
    12. Hengzhou Xu & Chuanrong Zhang & Weidong Li & Wenjing Zhang & Hongchun Yin, 2018. "Economic growth and carbon emission in China:a spatial econometric Kuznets curve?," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 36(1), pages 11-28.
    13. S . K. Oni & F. Mieres & M. N. Futter & H. Laudon, 2017. "Soil temperature responses to climate change along a gradient of upland–riparian transect in boreal forest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 27-41, July.
    14. Dalei Hao & Gautam Bisht & Hailong Wang & Donghui Xu & Huilin Huang & Yun Qian & L. Ruby Leung, 2023. "A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Diana R. Gergel & Bart Nijssen & John T. Abatzoglou & Dennis P. Lettenmaier & Matt R. Stumbaugh, 2017. "Effects of climate change on snowpack and fire potential in the western USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(2), pages 287-299, March.
    16. Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard Tol, 2013. "Climate change impacts on global agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 357-374, September.
    17. Xiaoyan Wang & Tao Yang & Chong-Yu Xu & Lihua Xiong & Pengfei Shi & Zhenya Li, 2020. "The response of runoff components and glacier mass balance to climate change for a glaciated high-mountainous catchment in the Tianshan Mountains," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1239-1258, November.
    18. Zhongqiang Bai & Juanle Wang & Mingming Wang & Mengxu Gao & Jiulin Sun, 2018. "Accuracy Assessment of Multi-Source Gridded Population Distribution Datasets in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-15, April.
    19. Leiwen Jiang & Karen Hardee, 2011. "How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 30(2), pages 287-312, April.
    20. Schaefli, Bettina & Manso, Pedro & Fischer, Mauro & Huss, Matthias & Farinotti, Daniel, 2017. "The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production," Earth Arxiv 7z96d, Center for Open Science.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:2:d:10.1007_s11269-015-1194-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.