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Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Dynamics of Two Major Rivers of the Northern Lake Erie Basin in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Binbin Zhang

    (School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

  • Narayan Kumar Shrestha

    (School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

  • Prasad Daggupati

    (School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

  • Ramesh Rudra

    (School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

  • Rituraj Shukla

    (School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

  • Baljeet Kaur

    (School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

  • Jun Hou

    (School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Rd E, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

Abstract

This paper focuses on understanding the effects of projected climate change on streamflow dynamics of the Grand and Thames rivers of the Northern Lake Erie (NLE) basin. A soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model is developed, calibrated, and validated in a base-period. The model is able to simulate the monthly streamflow dynamics with ‘Good’ to ‘Very Good’ accuracy. The calibrated and validated model is then subjected with daily bias-corrected future climatic data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). Five bias-correction methods and their 12 combinations were evaluated using the Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd). Distribution mapping (DM) performed the best and was used for further analysis. Two future time-periods and two IPCC AR5 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are considered. Results showed marked temporal and spatial variability in precipitation (−37% to +63%) and temperature (−3 °C to +14 °C) changes, which are reflected in evapotranspiration (−52% to +412%) and soil water storage (−60% to +12%) changes, resulting in heterogeneity in streamflow (−77% to +170%) changes. On average, increases in winter (+11%), and decreases in spring (–33%), summer (−23%), and autumn (−15%) streamflow are expected in future. This is the first work of this kind in the NLE and such marked variability in water resources availability poses considerable challenges to water resources planners and managers.

Suggested Citation

  • Binbin Zhang & Narayan Kumar Shrestha & Prasad Daggupati & Ramesh Rudra & Rituraj Shukla & Baljeet Kaur & Jun Hou, 2018. "Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Dynamics of Two Major Rivers of the Northern Lake Erie Basin in Canada," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-23, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:8:p:2897-:d:163908
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Woonsup Choi & Sung Kim & Mark Lee & Kristina Koenig & Peter Rasmussen, 2014. "Hydrological Impacts of Warmer and Wetter Climate in Troutlake and Sturgeon River Basins in Central Canada," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5319-5333, December.
    2. Bhumika Uniyal & Madan Jha & Arbind Verma, 2015. "Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components of a River Basin Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4767-4785, October.
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    2. Amit Kumar & Abhilash Singh & Kumar Gaurav, 2023. "Assessing the synergic effect of land use and climate change on the upper Betwa River catchment in Central India under present, past, and future climate scenarios," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(6), pages 5163-5184, June.
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