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Quantification of Climate Change Impact on Regional Agricultural Irrigation and Groundwater Demand

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  • Peter Kreins
  • Martin Henseler
  • Jano Anter
  • Frank Herrmann
  • Frank Wendland

Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact agricultural production conditions and groundwater resources. The climate change impacts are expected to be of particular importance for the German region North Rhine-Westphalia. Due to a high population density and intensive partial irrigation of agricultural production, future resource conflicts for groundwater are expected. An integrated model framework consisting of climate, crop-soils and groundwater models represents the regional heterogeneous climatic, geographic and agronomic conditions. The integrated model framework simulates the irrigation demand and groundwater recharge. An ex-post comparison between the simulated reference period (1961 to 1990) and statistical data prove a good model validity. The climate change scenario for the future period 2051 to 2080 assumes decreasing precipitation and increasing transpiration. The simulated total irrigation demand increases by nearly 20 times compared to the reference period (1961 to 1990) and increases regionally to more than 40 mm/ha. Decreasing groundwater recharge results in a tenfold increased share of irrigation water from groundwater. This share accounts regionally for more than 30 %. The results indicate important impacts for both agricultural production and other groundwater users. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

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  • Peter Kreins & Martin Henseler & Jano Anter & Frank Herrmann & Frank Wendland, 2015. "Quantification of Climate Change Impact on Regional Agricultural Irrigation and Groundwater Demand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3585-3600, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:10:p:3585-3600
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-1017-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Abdelaziz A. Gohar & Adrian Cashman, 2018. "The Economic Value of Groundwater Irrigation for Food Security Under Climate Change: Implication of Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(12), pages 3903-3918, September.
    3. Egerer, Sabine & Cotera, Rodrigo Valencia & Celliers, Louis & Costa, María Máñez, 2021. "A leverage points analysis of a qualitative system dynamics model for climate change adaptation in agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Deg-Hyo Bae & Toshio Koike & Jehangir Awan & Moon-Hwan Lee & Kyung-Hwan Sohn, 2015. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Water Resources and Susceptible Zones Identification in the Asian Monsoon Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(14), pages 5377-5393, November.
    5. N. Maier & J. Dietrich, 2016. "Using SWAT for Strategic Planning of Basin Scale Irrigation Control Policies: a Case Study from a Humid Region in Northern Germany," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3285-3298, July.
    6. Haqiqi, Iman & Bahalou Horeh, Marziyeh, 2018. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Surface and Ground Water Withdrawal: A New Global Data Base of Costs and Returns of Irrigation Part I: Background, Method, and Data," Conference papers 332975, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Andreas Wunsch & Tanja Liesch & Stefan Broda, 2022. "Deep learning shows declining groundwater levels in Germany until 2100 due to climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. Slobodan P. Simonovic, 2017. "Bringing Future Climatic Change into Water Resources Management Practice Today," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2933-2950, August.
    9. Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin, 2021. "Informing groundwater policies in semi-arid agricultural production regions under stochastic climate scenario impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).

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