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Sensitivity Analysis of Coupled Hydro-Economic Models: Quantifying Climate Change Uncertainty for Decision-Making

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  • Daniela D’Agostino
  • Alessandra Scardigno
  • Nicola Lamaddalena
  • Daniel Chami

Abstract

The paper assessed the sensitivity of an integrated hydro-economic model, to provide a quantitative range of uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on water balance components and water use in the agricultural sector of Apulia region located in a semi-arid Mediterranean climate area in southern Italy. Results show that the impacts of climate change are expressed in the future by an increase in the net irrigation requirements (NIRs) of all crops. Total cultivated land is reduced by 8.5 % in the future, and the percentage of irrigated land decreases from 31 to 22 % of total agricultural land. Reduction in the irrigated land, together with the variation in the cropping pattern and the adoption of the different irrigation techniques, led to a decrease in water demand for irrigation across the entire region. The sensitivity analysis shows that the groundwater recharge has the lowest correlation to climatic parameters. Results are addressed to the scientific community and decision makers to support the design of adequate adaptation policies for efficient water management under the severe drought conditions that are likely to occur in the region according to climate change projections. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela D’Agostino & Alessandra Scardigno & Nicola Lamaddalena & Daniel Chami, 2014. "Sensitivity Analysis of Coupled Hydro-Economic Models: Quantifying Climate Change Uncertainty for Decision-Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4303-4318, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:12:p:4303-4318
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0748-2
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    Cited by:

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    2. José M. Rodríguez-Flores & Jorge A. Valero Fandiño & Spencer A. Cole & Keyvan Malek & Tina Karimi & Harrison B. Zeff & Patrick M. Reed & Alvar Escriva-Bou & Josué Medellín-Azuara, 2022. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Coupled Hydro-Economic Model and Groundwater Restriction Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6115-6130, December.
    3. A. Alamanos & D. Latinopoulos & G. Papaioannou & N. Mylopoulos, 2019. "Integrated Hydro-Economic Modeling for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Data-Scarce Areas: The Case of Lake Karla Watershed in Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2775-2790, June.
    4. Peter Kreins & Martin Henseler & Jano Anter & Frank Herrmann & Frank Wendland, 2015. "Quantification of Climate Change Impact on Regional Agricultural Irrigation and Groundwater Demand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3585-3600, August.
    5. Esteve, Paloma & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Downing, Thomas E., 2015. "A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-58.
    6. Saliba, R. & Callieris, R. & D’Agostino, D. & Roma, R. & Scardigno, A., 2018. "Stakeholders’ attitude towards the reuse of treated wastewater for irrigation in Mediterranean agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 60-68.
    7. Abbas Mirzaei & Mansour Zibaei, 2021. "Water Conflict Management between Agriculture and Wetland under Climate Change: Application of Economic-Hydrological-Behavioral Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Yaoze Liu & Indrajeet Chaubey & Laura C. Bowling & Vincent F. Bralts & Bernard A. Engel, 2016. "Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the L-THIA-LID 2.1 Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4927-4949, October.

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