IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v28y2014i12p4303-4318.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity Analysis of Coupled Hydro-Economic Models: Quantifying Climate Change Uncertainty for Decision-Making

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela D’Agostino
  • Alessandra Scardigno
  • Nicola Lamaddalena
  • Daniel Chami

Abstract

The paper assessed the sensitivity of an integrated hydro-economic model, to provide a quantitative range of uncertainty in the impacts of climate change on water balance components and water use in the agricultural sector of Apulia region located in a semi-arid Mediterranean climate area in southern Italy. Results show that the impacts of climate change are expressed in the future by an increase in the net irrigation requirements (NIRs) of all crops. Total cultivated land is reduced by 8.5 % in the future, and the percentage of irrigated land decreases from 31 to 22 % of total agricultural land. Reduction in the irrigated land, together with the variation in the cropping pattern and the adoption of the different irrigation techniques, led to a decrease in water demand for irrigation across the entire region. The sensitivity analysis shows that the groundwater recharge has the lowest correlation to climatic parameters. Results are addressed to the scientific community and decision makers to support the design of adequate adaptation policies for efficient water management under the severe drought conditions that are likely to occur in the region according to climate change projections. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela D’Agostino & Alessandra Scardigno & Nicola Lamaddalena & Daniel Chami, 2014. "Sensitivity Analysis of Coupled Hydro-Economic Models: Quantifying Climate Change Uncertainty for Decision-Making," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(12), pages 4303-4318, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:12:p:4303-4318
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0748-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-014-0748-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-014-0748-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saraiva, Joao Paulo & Pinheiro, Antonio Cipriano, 2007. "A Multi-Criteria Approach for Irrigation Water Management," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, January.
    2. Sebastian Kloss & Raji Pushpalatha & Kefasi Kamoyo & Niels Schütze, 2012. "Evaluation of Crop Models for Simulating and Optimizing Deficit Irrigation Systems in Arid and Semi-arid Countries Under Climate Variability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(4), pages 997-1014, March.
    3. Collins, Julie, 2007. "Climate Change and Emissions Trading (Power Point)," 2007 Seminar, August 24, 2007, Wellington, New Zealand 97617, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. Raziei, Tayeb & Pereira, Luis S., 2013. "Estimation of ETo with Hargreaves–Samani and FAO-PM temperature methods for a wide range of climates in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 1-18.
    5. James Risbey & Kais Hamza & John Marsden, 2007. "Use of climate scenarios to aid in decision analysis for interannual water supply planning," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(6), pages 919-932, June.
    6. Gomez-Limon, J. A. & Berbel, J., 2000. "Multicriteria analysis of derived water demand functions: a Spanish case study," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 49-72, January.
    7. Md. Islam & Toshiya Aramaki & Keisuke Hanaki, 2005. "Development and Application of an Integrated Water Balance Model to Study the Sensitivity of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Water Availability Scenario to Climatic Changes," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 19(4), pages 423-445, August.
    8. Shimelis Setegn & V. Chowdary & B. Mal & Fikadu Yohannes & Yasuyuki Kono, 2011. "Water Balance Study and Irrigation Strategies for Sustainable Management of a Tropical Ethiopian Lake: A Case Study of Lake Alemaya," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(9), pages 2081-2107, July.
    9. A. Chavez-Jimenez & B. Lama & L. Garrote & F. Martin-Carrasco & A. Sordo-Ward & L. Mediero, 2013. "Characterisation of the Sensitivity of Water Resources Systems to Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(12), pages 4237-4258, September.
    10. Roland Barthel & Tim Reichenau & Tatjana Krimly & Stephan Dabbert & Karl Schneider & Wolfram Mauser, 2012. "Integrated Modeling of Global Change Impacts on Agriculture and Groundwater Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(7), pages 1929-1951, May.
    11. Helton, J.C. & Johnson, J.D. & Sallaberry, C.J. & Storlie, C.B., 2006. "Survey of sampling-based methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 91(10), pages 1175-1209.
    12. Chong-yu Xu, 1999. "Climate Change and Hydrologic Models: A Review of Existing Gaps and Recent Research Developments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 13(5), pages 369-382, October.
    13. A. Scardigno & D. D’Agostino & D. El Chami & N. Lamaddalena, 2014. "Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture Water Management: Application of an Integrated Hydrological-Economic Modelling Tool in a Semi-Arid Region," Cooperative Management, in: Constantin Zopounidis & Nikos Kalogeras & Konstadinos Mattas & Gert Dijk & George Baourakis (ed.), Agricultural Cooperative Management and Policy, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 199-222, Springer.
    14. Mutlu Ozdogan & Curtis Woodcock & Guido Salvucci & Hüseyin Demir, 2006. "Changes in Summer Irrigated Crop Area and Water Use in Southeastern Turkey from 1993 to 2002: Implications for Current and Future Water Resources," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(3), pages 467-488, June.
    15. Ying Wang & Yun Chen & Shizhang Peng, 2011. "A GIS Framework for Changing Cropping Pattern Under Different Climate Conditions and Irrigation Availability Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3073-3090, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. A. Alamanos & D. Latinopoulos & G. Papaioannou & N. Mylopoulos, 2019. "Integrated Hydro-Economic Modeling for Sustainable Water Resources Management in Data-Scarce Areas: The Case of Lake Karla Watershed in Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(8), pages 2775-2790, June.
    2. Peter Kreins & Martin Henseler & Jano Anter & Frank Herrmann & Frank Wendland, 2015. "Quantification of Climate Change Impact on Regional Agricultural Irrigation and Groundwater Demand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(10), pages 3585-3600, August.
    3. Esteve, Paloma & Varela-Ortega, Consuelo & Blanco-Gutiérrez, Irene & Downing, Thomas E., 2015. "A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 49-58.
    4. Francisco Fernández & Roberto Ponce & Maria Blanco & Diego Rivera & Felipe Vásquez, 2016. "Water Variability and the Economic Impacts on Small-Scale Farmers. A Farm Risk-Based Integrated Modelling Approach," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(4), pages 1357-1373, March.
    5. José M. Rodríguez-Flores & Jorge A. Valero Fandiño & Spencer A. Cole & Keyvan Malek & Tina Karimi & Harrison B. Zeff & Patrick M. Reed & Alvar Escriva-Bou & Josué Medellín-Azuara, 2022. "Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Coupled Hydro-Economic Model and Groundwater Restriction Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 6115-6130, December.
    6. Saliba, R. & Callieris, R. & D’Agostino, D. & Roma, R. & Scardigno, A., 2018. "Stakeholders’ attitude towards the reuse of treated wastewater for irrigation in Mediterranean agriculture," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 60-68.
    7. Abbas Mirzaei & Mansour Zibaei, 2021. "Water Conflict Management between Agriculture and Wetland under Climate Change: Application of Economic-Hydrological-Behavioral Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(1), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Yaoze Liu & Indrajeet Chaubey & Laura C. Bowling & Vincent F. Bralts & Bernard A. Engel, 2016. "Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of the L-THIA-LID 2.1 Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4927-4949, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Chami & Alessandra Scardigno & Giulio Malorgio, 2011. "Impacts of Combined Technical and Economic Measures on Water Saving in Agriculture under Water Availability Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3911-3929, November.
    2. Qian Li & Yan Chen & Shikun Sun & Muyuan Zhu & Jing Xue & Zihan Gao & Jinfeng Zhao & Yihe Tang, 2022. "Research on Crop Irrigation Schedules Under Deficit Irrigation—A Meta-analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(12), pages 4799-4817, September.
    3. Zhou, Yuekuan & Zheng, Siqian, 2020. "Uncertainty study on thermal and energy performances of a deterministic parameters based optimal aerogel glazing system using machine-learning method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. Helton, Jon C. & Johnson, Jay D. & Sallaberry, Cédric J., 2011. "Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Example analyses from reactor safety and radioactive waste disposal involving the separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(9), pages 1014-1033.
    5. Saurbayeva, Assemgul & Memon, Shazim Ali & Kim, Jong, 2023. "Integrated multi-stage sensitivity analysis and multi-objective optimization approach for PCM integrated residential buildings in different climate zones," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    6. Manohar Arora & Pratap Singh & N. Goel & R. Singh, 2008. "Climate Variability Influences on Hydrological Responses of a Large Himalayan Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(10), pages 1461-1475, October.
    7. Tian, Wei & Song, Jitian & Li, Zhanyong & de Wilde, Pieter, 2014. "Bootstrap techniques for sensitivity analysis and model selection in building thermal performance analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 320-328.
    8. Santos, Reginaldo Ferreira & Bassegio, Doglas & de Almeida Silva, Marcelo, 2017. "Productivity and production components of safflower genotypes affected by irrigation at phenological stages," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 66-74.
    9. Xuankai Deng & Yanhua Yu & Yanfang Liu, 2015. "Effect of Construction Land Expansion on Energy-Related Carbon Emissions: Empirical Analysis of China and Its Provinces from 2001 to 2011," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(6), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Gomez-Limon, Jose A. & Riesgo, Laura, 2004. "Irrigation water pricing: differential impacts on irrigated farms," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 47-66, July.
    11. Gómez-Limón, José A. & Gutiérrez-Martín, Carlos & Riesgo, Laura, 2016. "Modeling at farm level: Positive Multi-Attribute Utility Programming," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 17-27.
    12. Enrica De Cian & Ilkka Keppo & Johannes Bollen & Samuel Carrara & Hannah Förster & Michael Hübler & Amit Kanudia & Sergey Paltsev & Ronald D. Sands & Katja Schumacher, 2013. "European-Led Climate Policy Versus Global Mitigation Action: Implications On Trade, Technology, And Energy," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(supp0), pages 1-28.
    13. Guo, Zehua & Dailey, Ryan & Feng, Tangtao & Zhou, Yukun & Sun, Zhongning & Corradini, Michael L & Wang, Jun, 2021. "Uncertainty analysis of ATF Cr-coated-Zircaloy on BWR in-vessel accident progression during a station blackout," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    14. Wang, Ran & Lu, Shilei & Feng, Wei, 2020. "A three-stage optimization methodology for envelope design of passive house considering energy demand, thermal comfort and cost," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    15. Pérez-Mesa, Juan Carlos & Galdeano-Gómez, Emilio & Salinas Andújar, Jose A., 2012. "Logistics network and externalities for short sea transport: An analysis of horticultural exports from southeast Spain," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 188-198.
    16. Taleghani, Mohammad & Tenpierik, Martin & Kurvers, Stanley & van den Dobbelsteen, Andy, 2013. "A review into thermal comfort in buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 201-215.
    17. Bosello, Francesco & Carraro, Carlo & De Cian, Enrica, 2013. "Adaptation can help mitigation: an integrated approach to post-2012 climate policy," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 270-290, June.
    18. Luis Santos Pereira, 2017. "Water, Agriculture and Food: Challenges and Issues," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 2985-2999, August.
    19. P. Gupta & S. Dutta & S. Panigrahy, 2010. "Mapping of Conjunctive Water Use Productivity Pattern in an Irrigation Command Using Temporal IRS WiFS Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 157-171, January.
    20. Zio, E. & Pedroni, N., 2010. "An optimized Line Sampling method for the estimation of the failure probability of nuclear passive systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(12), pages 1300-1313.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:12:p:4303-4318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.