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Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

Author

Listed:
  • F. F. Hattermann

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • V. Krysanova

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • S. N. Gosling

    (University of Nottingham)

  • R. Dankers

    (Met Office)

  • P. Daggupati

    (University of Guelph)

  • C. Donnelly

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute)

  • M. Flörke

    (University of Kassel)

  • S. Huang

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Y. Motovilov

    (Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Science)

  • S. Buda

    (China Meteorological Administration)

  • T. Yang

    (Hohai University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • C. Müller

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • G. Leng

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Q. Tang

    (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • F. T. Portmann

    (Johann Wolfgang Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main)

  • S. Hagemann

    (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology)

  • D. Gerten

    (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Y. Wada

    (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    Columbia University
    Utrecht University
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • Y. Masaki

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • T. Alemayehu

    (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)

  • Y. Satoh

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)

  • L. Samaniego

    (UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research)

Abstract

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

Suggested Citation

  • F. F. Hattermann & V. Krysanova & S. N. Gosling & R. Dankers & P. Daggupati & C. Donnelly & M. Flörke & S. Huang & Y. Motovilov & S. Buda & T. Yang & C. Müller & G. Leng & Q. Tang & F. T. Portmann & S, 2017. "Cross‐scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 561-576, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:141:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1829-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Xi Chen & Tao Yang & Xiaoyan Wang & Chong-Yu Xu & Zhongbo Yu, 2013. "Uncertainty Intercomparison of Different Hydrological Models in Simulating Extreme Flows," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1393-1409, March.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Fred Hattermann & Mathias Weiland & Shaochun Huang & Valentina Krysanova & Zbigniew Kundzewicz, 2011. "Model-Supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany Under Climate Change—A Case Study," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3113-3134, October.
    4. Luc Feyen & Rutger Dankers & Katalin Bódis & Peter Salamon & José Barredo, 2012. "Fluvial flood risk in Europe in present and future climates," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(1), pages 47-62, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Shanshan Wen & Buda Su & Yanjun Wang & Jianqing Zhai & Hemin Sun & Ziyan Chen & Jinlong Huang & Anqian Wang & Tong Jiang, 2020. "Comprehensive evaluation of hydrological models for climate change impact assessment in the Upper Yangtze River Basin, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1207-1226, December.
    2. Shaochun Huang & Harsh Shah & Bibi S. Naz & Narayan Shrestha & Vimal Mishra & Prasad Daggupati & Uttam Ghimire & Tobias Vetter, 2020. "Impacts of hydrological model calibration on projected hydrological changes under climate change—a multi-model assessment in three large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1143-1164, December.
    3. Rutger Dankers & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, 2020. "Grappling with uncertainties in physical climate impact projections of water resources," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1379-1397, December.
    4. Anne Gädeke & Valentina Krysanova & Aashutosh Aryal & Jinfeng Chang & Manolis Grillakis & Naota Hanasaki & Aristeidis Koutroulis & Yadu Pokhrel & Yusuke Satoh & Sibyll Schaphoff & Hannes Müller Schmie, 2020. "Performance evaluation of global hydrological models in six large Pan-Arctic watersheds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1329-1351, December.
    5. Celray James Chawanda & Jeffrey Arnold & Wim Thiery & Ann Griensven, 2020. "Mass balance calibration and reservoir representations for large-scale hydrological impact studies using SWAT+," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1307-1327, December.
    6. Valentina Krysanova & Fred F. Hattermann & Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, 2020. "How evaluation of hydrological models influences results of climate impact assessment—an editorial," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1121-1141, December.
    7. João Paulo Lyra Fialho Brêda & Rodrigo Cauduro Dias Paiva & Walter Collischon & Juan Martín Bravo & Vinicius Alencar Siqueira & Elisa Bolzan Steinke, 2020. "Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 159(4), pages 503-522, April.
    8. Valentina Krysanova & Jamal Zaherpour & Iulii Didovets & Simon N. Gosling & Dieter Gerten & Naota Hanasaki & Hannes Müller Schmied & Yadu Pokhrel & Yusuke Satoh & Qiuhong Tang & Yoshihide Wada, 2020. "How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1353-1377, December.

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