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Higher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States

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  • Hanbeen Kim

    (University of Iowa
    Princeton University
    Princeton University)

  • Gabriele Villarini

    (University of Iowa
    Princeton University
    Princeton University)

Abstract

Understanding projected changes in flooding across the contiguous United States (CONUS) helps increase our capability to adapt to and mitigate against this hazard. Here, we assess future changes in flooding across CONUS using outputs from 28 global climate models and four scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We find that CONUS is projected to experience an overall increase in flooding, especially under higher emission scenarios; there are subregional differences, with the Northeast and Southeast (Great Plains of the North and Southwest) showing higher tendency towards increasing (decreasing) flooding due to changes in flood processes at the seasonal scale. Moreover, even though trends may not be detected in the historical period, these projected future trends highlight the current needs for incorporating climate change in the future infrastructure designs and management of the water resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Hanbeen Kim & Gabriele Villarini, 2024. "Higher emissions scenarios lead to more extreme flooding in the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-44415-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44415-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shaochun Huang & Valentina Krysanova & Jianqing Zhai & Buda Su, 2015. "Impact of Intensive Irrigation Activities on River Discharge Under Agricultural Scenarios in the Semi-Arid Aksu River Basin, Northwest China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(3), pages 945-959, February.
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