IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v28y2014i14p5039-5054.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of Meteorological, Hydrological and Agricultural Drought Responses to Climate Change and Uncertainty Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Kai Duan
  • Yadong Mei

Abstract

A comparison study of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought responses to climate change resulting from different General Circulation Models (GCMs), emission scenarios and hydrological models is presented. Drought variations from 1961–2000 to 2061–2100 in Huai River basin above Bengbu station in China are investigated. Meteorological drought is recognized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) while hydrological drought and agricultural drought are indexed with a similar standardized procedure by the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and Standardized Soil Water Index (SSWI). The results generally approve that hydrological and agricultural drought could still pose greater threats to local water resources management in the future, even with a more steady background to meteorological drought. However, the various drought responses to climate change indicate that uncertainty arises in the propagation of drought from meteorological to hydrological and agricultural systems with respect to alternative climates. The uncertainty in hydrological model structure, as well as the uncertainties in GCM and emission scenario, are aggregated to the results and lead to much wider variations in hydrological and agricultural drought characteristics. Our results also reveal that the selection of hydrological models can induce fundamental differences in drought simulations, and the role of hydrological model uncertainty may become dominating among the three uncertainty sources while recognizing frequency of extreme drought and maximum drought duration. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Duan & Yadong Mei, 2014. "Comparison of Meteorological, Hydrological and Agricultural Drought Responses to Climate Change and Uncertainty Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5039-5054, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:14:p:5039-5054
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0789-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-014-0789-6
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-014-0789-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amin Zargar & Rehan Sadiq & Faisal Khan, 2014. "Uncertainty-Driven Characterization of Climate Change Effects on Drought Frequency Using Enhanced SPI," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(1), pages 15-40, January.
    2. Jae Ryu & Mohammad Sohrabi & Anil Acharya, 2014. "Toward Mapping Gridded Drought Indices to Evaluate Local Drought in a Rapidly Changing Global Environment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3859-3869, September.
    3. Lu Liu & Yang Hong & Christopher Bednarczyk & Bin Yong & Mark Shafer & Rachel Riley & James Hocker, 2012. "Hydro-Climatological Drought Analyses and Projections Using Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Indices: A Case Study in Blue River Basin, Oklahoma," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(10), pages 2761-2779, August.
    4. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    5. I. Nalbantis & G. Tsakiris, 2009. "Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 881-897, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yixuan Wang & Jianzhu Li & Ping Feng & Rong Hu, 2015. "A Time-Dependent Drought Index for Non-Stationary Precipitation Series," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5631-5647, December.
    2. Olufemi Sunday Durowoju & Temi Emmanuel Ologunorisa & Ademola Akinbobola, 2022. "Assessing agricultural and hydrological drought vulnerability in a savanna ecological zone of Sub-Saharan Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2431-2458, April.
    3. Jamal Uddin Khan & A. K. M. Saiful Islam & Mohan K. Das & Khaled Mohammed & Sujit Kumar Bala & G. M. Tarekul Islam, 2020. "Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 667-685, September.
    4. Yi Liu & Xiaoli Yang & Liliang Ren & Fei Yuan & Shanhu Jiang & Mingwei Ma, 2015. "A New Physically Based Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and its Performance Evaluation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4833-4847, October.
    5. Trnka, Miroslav & Vizina, Adam & Hanel, Martin & Balek, Jan & Fischer, Milan & Hlavinka, Petr & Semerádová, Daniela & Štěpánek, Petr & Zahradníček, Pavel & Skalák, Petr & Eitzinger, Josef & Dubrovský,, 2022. "Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    6. Ting Wei & Songbai Song, 2019. "Utilization of the Copula-Based Composite Likelihood Approach to Improve Design Precipitation Estimates Accuracy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5089-5106, December.
    7. Antonino Cancelliere, 2017. "Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3097-3110, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hossein Tabari & Jaefar Nikbakht & P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, 2013. "Hydrological Drought Assessment in Northwestern Iran Based on Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 137-151, January.
    2. Dimitrios Myronidis & Konstantinos Ioannou & Dimitrios Fotakis & Gerald Dörflinger, 2018. "Streamflow and Hydrological Drought Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Cyprus," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1759-1776, March.
    3. Antonino Cancelliere, 2017. "Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3097-3110, August.
    4. Yi Liu & Xiaoli Yang & Liliang Ren & Fei Yuan & Shanhu Jiang & Mingwei Ma, 2015. "A New Physically Based Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and its Performance Evaluation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4833-4847, October.
    5. Majid Kazemzadeh & Arash Malekian, 2016. "Spatial characteristics and temporal trends of meteorological and hydrological droughts in northwestern Iran," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 191-210, January.
    6. N. Subash & H. Mohan, 2011. "A Simple Rationally Integrated Drought Indicator for Rice–Wheat Productivity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2425-2447, August.
    7. Basem Shomar & Mohamed Darwish & Candace Rowell, 2014. "What does Integrated Water Resources Management from Local to Global Perspective Mean? Qatar as a Case Study, the Very Rich Country with No Water," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 2781-2791, August.
    8. Lampros Vasiliades & Athanasios Loukas & Nikos Liberis, 2011. "A Water Balance Derived Drought Index for Pinios River Basin, Greece," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1087-1101, March.
    9. Youxin Wang & Tao Peng & Qingxia Lin & Vijay P. Singh & Xiaohua Dong & Chen Chen & Ji Liu & Wenjuan Chang & Gaoxu Wang, 2022. "A New Non-stationary Hydrological Drought Index Encompassing Climate Indices and Modified Reservoir Index as Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2433-2454, May.
    10. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi & Jaber Rahimi, 2014. "Drought Monitoring Using the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(4), pages 1045-1060, March.
    11. Jie Yang & Yimin Wang & Jun Yao & Jianxia Chang & Guoxin Xu & Xin Wang & Hui Hu, 2020. "Coincidence probability analysis of hydrologic low-flow under the changing environment in the Wei River Basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 1711-1726, September.
    12. Željka Brkić & Mladen Kuhta, 2022. "Lake Level Evolution of the Largest Freshwater Lake on the Mediterranean Islands through Drought Analysis and Machine Learning," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-28, August.
    13. I. García-Garizábal & J. Causapé & R. Abrahao & D. Merchan, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigation Demand: Historical Dynamics of Climate and Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1449-1462, March.
    14. Jagadish Padhiary & Kanhu Charan Patra & Sonam Sandeep Dash, 2022. "A Novel Approach to Identify the Characteristics of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenario," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5163-5189, October.
    15. Peng Qi & Y. Jun Xu & Guodong Wang, 2020. "Quantifying the Individual Contributions of Climate Change, Dam Construction, and Land Use/Land Cover Change to Hydrological Drought in a Marshy River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-16, May.
    16. da Silva, Antonio Samuel Alves & Stosic, Tatijana & Arsenić, Ilija & Menezes, Rômulo Simões Cezar & Stosic, Borko, 2023. "Multifractal analysis of standardized precipitation index in Northeast Brazil," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    17. Enes Gul & Efthymia Staiou & Mir Jafar Sadegh Safari & Babak Vaheddoost, 2023. "Enhancing Meteorological Drought Modeling Accuracy Using Hybrid Boost Regression Models: A Case Study from the Aegean Region, Türkiye," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-17, July.
    18. Dehghanipour, Amir Hossein & Schoups, Gerrit & Zahabiyoun, Bagher & Babazadeh, Hossein, 2020. "Meeting agricultural and environmental water demand in endorheic irrigated river basins: A simulation-optimization approach applied to the Urmia Lake basin in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    19. Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi & Yousef Ramezani & Carlo De Michele & Rasoul Mirabbasi, 2020. "A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(13), pages 4217-4231, October.
    20. Ayşegül Kuzucu & Gülay Onuşluel Gül, 2023. "Analysis of Drought Dynamics over Annual Maximum Drought Severity Series Based on Daily Index Definitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1421-1436, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:14:p:5039-5054. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.