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Comparison of Meteorological, Hydrological and Agricultural Drought Responses to Climate Change and Uncertainty Assessment

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  • Kai Duan
  • Yadong Mei

Abstract

A comparison study of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought responses to climate change resulting from different General Circulation Models (GCMs), emission scenarios and hydrological models is presented. Drought variations from 1961–2000 to 2061–2100 in Huai River basin above Bengbu station in China are investigated. Meteorological drought is recognized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) while hydrological drought and agricultural drought are indexed with a similar standardized procedure by the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) and Standardized Soil Water Index (SSWI). The results generally approve that hydrological and agricultural drought could still pose greater threats to local water resources management in the future, even with a more steady background to meteorological drought. However, the various drought responses to climate change indicate that uncertainty arises in the propagation of drought from meteorological to hydrological and agricultural systems with respect to alternative climates. The uncertainty in hydrological model structure, as well as the uncertainties in GCM and emission scenario, are aggregated to the results and lead to much wider variations in hydrological and agricultural drought characteristics. Our results also reveal that the selection of hydrological models can induce fundamental differences in drought simulations, and the role of hydrological model uncertainty may become dominating among the three uncertainty sources while recognizing frequency of extreme drought and maximum drought duration. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Kai Duan & Yadong Mei, 2014. "Comparison of Meteorological, Hydrological and Agricultural Drought Responses to Climate Change and Uncertainty Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5039-5054, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:28:y:2014:i:14:p:5039-5054
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0789-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Amin Zargar & Rehan Sadiq & Faisal Khan, 2014. "Uncertainty-Driven Characterization of Climate Change Effects on Drought Frequency Using Enhanced SPI," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(1), pages 15-40, January.
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    5. I. Nalbantis & G. Tsakiris, 2009. "Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 881-897, March.
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    2. Olufemi Sunday Durowoju & Temi Emmanuel Ologunorisa & Ademola Akinbobola, 2022. "Assessing agricultural and hydrological drought vulnerability in a savanna ecological zone of Sub-Saharan Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(3), pages 2431-2458, April.
    3. Jamal Uddin Khan & A. K. M. Saiful Islam & Mohan K. Das & Khaled Mohammed & Sujit Kumar Bala & G. M. Tarekul Islam, 2020. "Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 667-685, September.
    4. Yi Liu & Xiaoli Yang & Liliang Ren & Fei Yuan & Shanhu Jiang & Mingwei Ma, 2015. "A New Physically Based Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and its Performance Evaluation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4833-4847, October.
    5. Trnka, Miroslav & Vizina, Adam & Hanel, Martin & Balek, Jan & Fischer, Milan & Hlavinka, Petr & Semerádová, Daniela & Štěpánek, Petr & Zahradníček, Pavel & Skalák, Petr & Eitzinger, Josef & Dubrovský,, 2022. "Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    6. Ting Wei & Songbai Song, 2019. "Utilization of the Copula-Based Composite Likelihood Approach to Improve Design Precipitation Estimates Accuracy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5089-5106, December.
    7. Antonino Cancelliere, 2017. "Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3097-3110, August.

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