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Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

Author

Listed:
  • Jamal Uddin Khan

    (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET))

  • A. K. M. Saiful Islam

    (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET))

  • Mohan K. Das

    (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET))

  • Khaled Mohammed

    (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET))

  • Sujit Kumar Bala

    (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET))

  • G. M. Tarekul Islam

    (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET))

Abstract

Drought is an inconspicuous natural disaster. In a warmer world, the severity and coverage of drought are expected to change, and it is essential to study these changes at smaller scale. This study detected changes in drought frequency, severity, and intensity in Bangladesh from a bias-corrected CMIP-5 multi-model projection of 11 members under a business-as-usual RCP8.5 scenario. We have used two well-known meteorological drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index (SPEI). SPI is solely based on precipitation, while SPEI considers climatic water balance and incorporates the effect of temperature. Two different methods of estimation of potential evapotranspiration (PET), namely Thornthwaite and Hargreaves methods, are explored. SPEI-based drought identification is found to have high sensitivity among these PET estimation methods. In Bangladesh, SPI-based analysis suggests virtually no change in the long-term drought (12-monthly) condition and a minor change in short-term (6-monthly or less) droughts. SPEI evaluated with Hargreaves method projects a similar scenario for long-term droughts but an increase in both drought frequency and severity in short timescales. At seasonal scale, winter and pre-monsoon are projected to be potentially more affected by water stress in the future. A spatially coherent shift in wet-dry regime is also found over the northern part of Bangladesh under the warming world.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamal Uddin Khan & A. K. M. Saiful Islam & Mohan K. Das & Khaled Mohammed & Sujit Kumar Bala & G. M. Tarekul Islam, 2020. "Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 667-685, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:162:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-020-02832-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02832-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kai Duan & Yadong Mei, 2014. "Comparison of Meteorological, Hydrological and Agricultural Drought Responses to Climate Change and Uncertainty Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(14), pages 5039-5054, November.
    2. B. Dash & M. Rafiuddin & Fahima Khanam & M. Islam, 2012. "Characteristics of meteorological drought in Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1461-1474, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Md Golam Azam & Md Mujibor Rahman, 2022. "Assessing spatial vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and extremes: a geographic information system approach," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 1-35, August.

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