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Behaviour and Performance of a Water Resource System in Québec (Canada) Under Adapted Operating Policies in a Climate Change Context

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  • Marie Minville
  • Stéphane Krau
  • François Brissette
  • Robert Leconte

Abstract

The behaviour of the water resource system of the Peribonka River (Quebec, Canada) exploited for hydropower is evaluated under various hydrological regimes, using different climate change scenarios. The hydrological regime of the recent past and the regimes of 30 climate projections are considered. The potential hydrological regimes are simulated for climate projections from five general circulation models (GCM) for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios and three temporal horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080). For each hydrological regime, weekly reservoir operating rules are calculated with a dynamic and stochastic optimization model. Simulations of the water resource system with adapted operating rules in these climate change contexts are compared with the management of the water resource system at the control period (1961–1990). For the majority of climate projections, the analysis of simulations in the context of climate change shows an increase in hydropower and in annual unproductive spills. These increases reach 22% and 300%, respectively, compared to the control period. Also, the reliability of a reservoir is compromised for half of the climate projections, with annual probabilities reaching above the maximum operating levels, up to 0.3%, whereas these probabilities were null for the control period. Despite the rise in production, the annual efficiency of the power plants would fluctuate between −5 to +8%, depending on the power plant, the climate projection and the horizon. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Marie Minville & Stéphane Krau & François Brissette & Robert Leconte, 2010. "Behaviour and Performance of a Water Resource System in Québec (Canada) Under Adapted Operating Policies in a Climate Change Context," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(7), pages 1333-1352, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:7:p:1333-1352
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-009-9500-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Slobodan Simonovic & Lanhai Li, 2004. "Sensitivity of the Red River Basin Flood Protection System to Climate Variability and Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 18(2), pages 89-110, April.
    2. Marie Minville & François Brissette & Stéphane Krau & Robert Leconte, 2009. "Adaptation to Climate Change in the Management of a Canadian Water-Resources System Exploited for Hydropower," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(14), pages 2965-2986, November.
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    2. R. Ghazavi & A. Vali & S. Eslamian, 2012. "Impact of Flood Spreading on Groundwater Level Variation and Groundwater Quality in an Arid Environment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1651-1663, April.
    3. Amirali Amir Jabbari & Ali Nazemi, 2019. "Alterations in Canadian Hydropower Production Potential Due to Continuation of Historical Trends in Climate Variables," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-29, September.
    4. Astudillo, Miguel F. & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Amor, Ben, 2017. "Can the household sector reduce global warming mitigation costs? sensitivity to key parameters in a TIMES techno-economic energy model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 486-498.
    5. Ryan MacDonald & James Byrne & Sarah Boon & Stefan Kienzle, 2012. "Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Snowpack in the North Saskatchewan River Watershed, Alberta," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3053-3076, September.
    6. Hydar Ebrahimi & Reza Ghazavi & Haji Karimi, 2016. "Estimation of Groundwater Recharge from the Rainfall and Irrigation in an Arid Environment Using Inverse Modeling Approach and RS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 1939-1951, April.
    7. Valeria Di Cosmo, 2011. "Are the Consumers Always Ready to Pay? A Quasi-Almost Ideal Demand System for the Italian Water Sector," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 465-481, January.

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