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Evaluation of the Reliability of a Water Supply Network from Right-Censored and Left-Truncated Break Data

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  • Andrés Carrión
  • Hernando Solano
  • María Gamiz
  • Ana Debón

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze failure data registered in a water supply network in order to evaluate the pipes failure probability. Only failures in normal operation conditions have been considered, excluding those caused by abnormal events. We consider an observation window from year 2000 until 2005, although the life of some of the water pipes started far in the past. This sampling scheme induces left-truncation into the data set (since failures before 2000 are not considered into the sample information) and right-censoring (for pipes that fail after 2005). We used an extended version of the Nelson–Aalen estimator, modified in order to accommodate left-truncation besides right-censoring (LTRC). Influencing factors on water pipes survival are identified. By the use of a semiparametric model based on the Cox proportional hazards model, also adapted to manage left-truncated and right-censored data, the effect of each factor over the failure risk of a pipe section has been estimated. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Carrión & Hernando Solano & María Gamiz & Ana Debón, 2010. "Evaluation of the Reliability of a Water Supply Network from Right-Censored and Left-Truncated Break Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(12), pages 2917-2935, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:12:p:2917-2935
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9587-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Park & H. Jun & B. Kim & G. Im, 2008. "Modeling of Water Main Failure Rates Using the Log-linear ROCOF and the Power Law Process," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1311-1324, September.
    2. Debón, A. & Carrión, A. & Cabrera, E. & Solano, H., 2010. "Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 43-48.
    3. Symeon Christodoulou & Alexandra Deligianni, 2010. "A Neurofuzzy Decision Framework for the Management of Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 139-156, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qiang Xu & Qiuwen Chen & Jinfeng Ma & Koen Blanckaert & Zhonghua Wan, 2014. "Water Saving and Energy Reduction through Pressure Management in Urban Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3715-3726, September.
    2. Suwan Park, 2011. "Estimating the Timing of the Economical Replacement of Water Mains Based on the Predicted Pipe Break Times Using the Proportional Hazards Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2509-2524, August.
    3. Michalis Fragiadakis & Symeon Christodoulou & Dimitrios Vamvatsikos, 2013. "Reliability Assessment of Urban Water Distribution Networks Under Seismic Loads," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3739-3764, August.
    4. García-Mora, B. & Debón, A. & Santamaría, C. & Carrión, A., 2015. "Modelling the failure risk for water supply networks with interval-censored data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 311-318.
    5. Daulat, Shamsuddin & Rokstad, Marius Møller & Bruaset, Stian & Langeveld, Jeroen & Tscheikner-Gratl, Franz, 2024. "Evaluating the generalizability and transferability of water distribution deterioration models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. José Martínez-Rodríguez & Idel Montalvo & Joaquín Izquierdo & Rafael Pérez-García, 2011. "Reliability and Tolerance Comparison in Water Supply Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(5), pages 1437-1448, March.
    7. Jacek Malinowski, 2016. "A newly developed method for computing reliability measures in a water supply network," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 26(4), pages 49-64.

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