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Modelling the failure risk for water supply networks with interval-censored data

Author

Listed:
  • García-Mora, B.
  • Debón, A.
  • Santamaría, C.
  • Carrión, A.

Abstract

In reliability, sometimes some failures are not observed at the exact moment of the occurrence. In that case it can be more convenient to approximate them by a time interval. In this study, we have used a generalized non-linear model developed for interval-censored data to treat the life time of a pipe from its time of installation until its failure. The aim of this analysis was to identify those network characteristics that may affect the risk of failure and we make an exhaustive validation of this analysis. The results indicated that certain characteristics of the network negatively affected the risk of failure of the pipe: an increase in the length and pressure of the pipes, a small diameter, some materials used in the manufacture of pipes and the traffic on the street where the pipes are located. Once the model has been correctly fitted to our data, we also provided simple tables that will allow companies to easily calculate the pipe׳s probability of failure in a future.

Suggested Citation

  • García-Mora, B. & Debón, A. & Santamaría, C. & Carrión, A., 2015. "Modelling the failure risk for water supply networks with interval-censored data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 311-318.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:144:y:2015:i:c:p:311-318
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. C. P. Farrington, 2000. "Residuals for Proportional Hazards Models with Interval-Censored Survival Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 56(2), pages 473-482, June.
    2. Debón, A. & Carrión, A. & Cabrera, E. & Solano, H., 2010. "Comparing risk of failure models in water supply networks using ROC curves," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 43-48.
    3. Andrés Carrión & Hernando Solano & María Gamiz & Ana Debón, 2010. "Evaluation of the Reliability of a Water Supply Network from Right-Censored and Left-Truncated Break Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(12), pages 2917-2935, September.
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