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Modeling of Water Main Failure Rates Using the Log-linear ROCOF and the Power Law Process

Author

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  • S. Park
  • H. Jun
  • B. Kim
  • G. Im

Abstract

This paper presents applications of the log-linear ROCOF and the power law process to model the failure rate and estimate the economically optimal replacement time of the individual pipes in a water distribution system. The performance of the two failure rate models is examined using the maximized log-likelihoods for different modeling approaches in which the method of observing failures differs. The optimal replacement time equations for the two models are developed by applying the methodology of Loganathan et al. (J Water Resour Plan Manage ASCE 128(4):271–279, 2002) for the case in which modified time scales are used. It was found that the log-linear ROCOF showed better performance than the power law process when the ‘failure-time-based’ method is used. Furthermore, the ‘failure-time-based’ method is proved to be superior compared to the ‘failure-number-based’ method for the water mains under study, implying that recording each failure time results in better modeling of the failure rate than observing failure numbers in some time intervals. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • S. Park & H. Jun & B. Kim & G. Im, 2008. "Modeling of Water Main Failure Rates Using the Log-linear ROCOF and the Power Law Process," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1311-1324, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:22:y:2008:i:9:p:1311-1324
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-007-9227-3
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Qiang Xu & Qiuwen Chen & Jinfeng Ma & Koen Blanckaert & Zhonghua Wan, 2014. "Water Saving and Energy Reduction through Pressure Management in Urban Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3715-3726, September.
    2. Kabir, Golam & Tesfamariam, Solomon & Sadiq, Rehan, 2015. "Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 498-514.
    3. Symeon Christodoulou & Alexandra Deligianni, 2010. "A Neurofuzzy Decision Framework for the Management of Water Distribution Networks," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(1), pages 139-156, January.
    4. Suwan Park & Hwandon Jun & Newland Agbenowosi & Bong Kim & Kiyoung Lim, 2011. "The Proportional Hazards Modeling of Water Main Failure Data Incorporating the Time-dependent Effects of Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 1-19, January.
    5. Andrés Carrión & Hernando Solano & María Gamiz & Ana Debón, 2010. "Evaluation of the Reliability of a Water Supply Network from Right-Censored and Left-Truncated Break Data," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(12), pages 2917-2935, September.
    6. Stavroula Tsitsifli & Vasilis Kanakoudis & Ioannis Bakouros, 2011. "Pipe Networks Risk Assessment Based on Survival Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3729-3746, November.
    7. Chih-Liang Kuo & Nien-Sheng Hsu, 2011. "An Optimization Model for Crucial Key Pipes and Mechanical Reliability: A Case Study on a Water Distribution System in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 763-775, January.

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