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The Proportional Hazards Modeling of Water Main Failure Data Incorporating the Time-dependent Effects of Covariates

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  • Suwan Park
  • Hwandon Jun
  • Newland Agbenowosi
  • Bong Kim
  • Kiyoung Lim

Abstract

Proportional hazards models (PHMs) for the times between consecutive pipe breaks were constructed using case study water main break data. The 150 mm individual cast iron pipes in the case study water distribution system were categorized into seven groups according to the past break history to construct a distinct PHM for each group. During the modeling process the assumption of the proportional hazards of covariates was examined to include the time-dependent effects of covariates on the failure hazard in the models. By analyzing the baseline hazard rates, the hazards of the third through the seventh break were found to follow a form similar to a bath-tub. The estimated regression coefficients and the hazard ratios of the selected covariates were used to analyze the variations in the factors and their effects, including the time-dependent effects on the pipe failures. The changes in the relative hazards of the covariates were also analyzed according to the number of breaks. The constructed PHMs were verified by analyzing the deviance residuals of each model. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Suwan Park & Hwandon Jun & Newland Agbenowosi & Bong Kim & Kiyoung Lim, 2011. "The Proportional Hazards Modeling of Water Main Failure Data Incorporating the Time-dependent Effects of Covariates," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:25:y:2011:i:1:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9684-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. S. Park & H. Jun & B. Kim & G. Im, 2008. "Modeling of Water Main Failure Rates Using the Log-linear ROCOF and the Power Law Process," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 22(9), pages 1311-1324, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kabir, Golam & Tesfamariam, Solomon & Sadiq, Rehan, 2015. "Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 498-514.
    2. Suwan Park, 2011. "Estimating the Timing of the Economical Replacement of Water Mains Based on the Predicted Pipe Break Times Using the Proportional Hazards Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(10), pages 2509-2524, August.
    3. M. Tabesh & H. Saber, 2012. "A Prioritization Model for Rehabilitation of Water Distribution Networks Using GIS," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(1), pages 225-241, January.
    4. Marwa Belhaj Salem & Mitra Fouladirad & Estelle Deloux, 2021. "Prognostic and Classification of Dynamic Degradation in a Mechanical System Using Variance Gamma Process," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-25, January.

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