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Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model

Author

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  • Oscar Claveria

    (University of Barcelona
    University of Barcelona)

  • Enric Monte

    (Polytechnic University of Catalunya)

  • Salvador Torra

    (University of Barcelona)

Abstract

This study presents an extension of the Gaussian process regression model for multiple-input multiple-output forecasting. This approach allows modelling the cross-dependencies between a given set of input variables and generating a vectorial prediction. Making use of the existing correlations in international tourism demand to all seventeen regions of Spain, the performance of the proposed model is assessed in a multiple-step-ahead forecasting comparison. The results of the experiment in a multivariate setting show that the Gaussian process regression model significantly improves the forecasting accuracy of a multi-layer perceptron neural network used as a benchmark. The results reveal that incorporating the connections between different markets in the modelling process may prove very useful to refine predictions at a regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2016. "Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 341-357, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:7:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1007_s13209-016-0144-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s13209-016-0144-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Petar Soric & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra & Oscar Claveria, 2022. "“Density forecasts of inflation using Gaussian process regression models”," AQR Working Papers 202207, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2022.
    2. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Petar Soric & Salvador Torra, 2022. "“An application of deep learning for exchange rate forecasting”," AQR Working Papers 202201, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2022.
    3. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A regional perspective on the accuracy of machine learning forecasts of tourism demand based on data characteristics”," IREA Working Papers 201805, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    4. Poonpong Suksawang & Sukonthip Suphachan & Kanokkarn Kaewnuch, 2018. "Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Thailand using Hybrid Model SARIMA and Gaussian Process with Combine Kernel Function Technique," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(4), pages 98-109.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Machine learning; Gaussian process regression; Neural networks; Multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO); Economic forecasting; Tourism demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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