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SVR with Hybrid Chaotic Immune Algorithm for Seasonal Load Demand Forecasting

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  • Wei-Chiang Hong

    (Department of Information Management, Oriental Institute of Technology/58 Sec. 2, Sichuan Rd., Panchiao, Taipei 200, Taiwan)

  • Yucheng Dong

    (Department of Organization and Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China)

  • Chien-Yuan Lai

    (Department of Information Management, Oriental Institute of Technology/58 Sec. 2, Sichuan Rd., Panchiao, Taipei 200, Taiwan)

  • Li-Yueh Chen

    (Department of Global Marketing and Logistics, MingDao University/369 Wen-Hua Rd., Peetow, Changhua 52345, Taiwan)

  • Shih-Yung Wei

    (Department & Graduate Institute of Finance, National Yunlin University of Science & Technology/123 Sec. 3, University Rd., Douliou, Yunlin 640, Taiwan)

Abstract

Accurate electric load forecasting has become the most important issue in energy management; however, electric load demonstrates a seasonal/cyclic tendency from economic activities or the cyclic nature of climate. The applications of the support vector regression (SVR) model to deal with seasonal/cyclic electric load forecasting have not been widely explored. The purpose of this paper is to present a SVR model which combines the seasonal adjustment mechanism and a chaotic immune algorithm (namely SSVRCIA) to forecast monthly electric loads. Based on the operation procedure of the immune algorithm (IA), if the population diversity of an initial population cannot be maintained under selective pressure, then IA could only seek for the solutions in the narrow space and the solution is far from the global optimum (premature convergence). The proposed chaotic immune algorithm (CIA) based on the chaos optimization algorithm and IA, which diversifies the initial definition domain in stochastic optimization procedures, is used to overcome the premature local optimum issue in determining three parameters of a SVR model. A numerical example from an existing reference is used to elucidate the forecasting performance of the proposed SSVRCIA model. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed model yields more accurate forecasting results than the ARIMA and TF-ε-SVR-SA models, and therefore the SSVRCIA model is a promising alternative for electric load forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei-Chiang Hong & Yucheng Dong & Chien-Yuan Lai & Li-Yueh Chen & Shih-Yung Wei, 2011. "SVR with Hybrid Chaotic Immune Algorithm for Seasonal Load Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 4(6), pages 1-18, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:4:y:2011:i:6:p:960-977:d:12806
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    6. Xie, Gang & Qian, Yatong & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "A decomposition-ensemble approach for tourism forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Zhang, Wen Yu & Hong, Wei-Chiang & Dong, Yucheng & Tsai, Gary & Sung, Jing-Tian & Fan, Guo-feng, 2012. "Application of SVR with chaotic GASA algorithm in cyclic electric load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 850-858.
    8. Wei, Zhongbao & Li, Xiaolu & Xu, Lijun & Cheng, Yanting, 2013. "Comparative study of computational intelligence approaches for NOx reduction of coal-fired boiler," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 683-692.
    9. Cheng-Wen Lee & Bing-Yi Lin, 2016. "Application of Hybrid Quantum Tabu Search with Support Vector Regression (SVR) for Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Chengshi Tian & Yan Hao, 2018. "A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-34, March.
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    12. Wei-Chiang Hong & Guo-Feng Fan, 2019. "Hybrid Empirical Mode Decomposition with Support Vector Regression Model for Short Term Load Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
    13. Mohanad S. Al-Musaylh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Yan Li, 2020. "Electrical Energy Demand Forecasting Model Development and Evaluation with Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform-Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machines Algorithms," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, May.
    14. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2016. "Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 341-357, August.
    15. Seyedeh Narjes Fallah & Mehdi Ganjkhani & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Kwok-wing Chau, 2019. "Computational Intelligence on Short-Term Load Forecasting: A Methodological Overview," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Moustris, K. & Kavadias, K.A. & Zafirakis, D. & Kaldellis, J.K., 2020. "Medium, short and very short-term prognosis of load demand for the Greek Island of Tilos using artificial neural networks and human thermal comfort-discomfort biometeorological data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 147(P1), pages 100-109.
    17. Cao, Guohua & Wu, Lijuan, 2016. "Support vector regression with fruit fly optimization algorithm for seasonal electricity consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P1), pages 734-745.
    18. Bui, Dac-Khuong & Nguyen, Tuan Ngoc & Ngo, Tuan Duc & Nguyen-Xuan, H., 2020. "An artificial neural network (ANN) expert system enhanced with the electromagnetism-based firefly algorithm (EFA) for predicting the energy consumption in buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    19. Lingyu, Tang & Jun, Wang & Chunyu, Zhao, 2021. "Mode decomposition method integrating mode reconstruction, feature extraction, and ELM for tourist arrival forecasting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    20. Ismail Shah & Hasnain Iftikhar & Sajid Ali, 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting Medium-Term Electricity Consumption Using Component Estimation Technique," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-17, May.
    21. Gang Xie & Xin Li & Yatong Qian & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "Forecasting tourism demand with KPCA-based web search indexes," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(4), pages 721-743, June.

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