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An Assessment of Changes in Winter Cold and Warm Spells over Canada

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  • Amir Shabbar
  • Barrie Bonsal

Abstract

The recent Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) indicated that observed 20th century changes in severalclimatic extremes are qualitatively consistent with those expected due to increasedgreenhouse gases. However, a lack of adequate data and analyses make conclusiveevidence of changing extremes somewhat difficult, particularly, in a global sense.In Canada, extreme temperature events, especially those during winter, can havemany adverse environmental and economic impacts. In light of the aforementionedIPCC report, the main focus of this analysis is to examine observed trends andvariability in the frequency, duration, and intensity of winter (Jan–Feb–Mar) cold and warm spells over Canada during the second half of the 20th century. Cold spell trends display substantial spatial variability across the country. From1950–1998, western Canada has experienced decreases in the frequency, duration, and intensity of cold spells, while in the east, distinct increases in the frequency and duration have occurred. These increases are likely associated with morefrequent occurrences of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)during the last several decades. With regard to winter warm spells, significantincreases in both the frequency and duration of these episodes were observedacross most of Canada. One exception was found in the extreme northeasternregions, where warm spells are becoming shorter and less frequent. The resultsof this study are discussed within the context of climate warming expectations. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2003

Suggested Citation

  • Amir Shabbar & Barrie Bonsal, 2003. "An Assessment of Changes in Winter Cold and Warm Spells over Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(2), pages 173-188, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:29:y:2003:i:2:p:173-188
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1023639209987
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arkadiusz M. Tomczyk & Agnieszka Sulikowska & Ewa Bednorz & Marek Półrolniczak, 2019. "Atmospheric circulation conditions during winter warm spells in Central Europe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1413-1428, April.
    2. Budong Qian & Sam Gameda & Xuebin Zhang & Reinder Jong, 2012. "Changing growing season observed in Canada," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 339-353, May.
    3. C. Haque & Ian Burton, 2005. "Adaptation Options Strategies for Hazards and Vulnerability Mitigation: An International Perspective," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 335-353, July.
    4. Julie A. Winkler & Logan Soldo & Ying Tang & Todd Forbush & David S. Douches & Chris M. Long & Courtney P. Leisner & C. Robin Buell, 2018. "Potential impacts of climate change on storage conditions for commercial agriculture: an example for potato production in Michigan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(2), pages 275-287, November.
    5. Stephanie E. Austin & James D. Ford & Lea Berrang-Ford & Malcolm Araos & Stephen Parker & Manon D. Fleury, 2015. "Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in Canadian Jurisdictions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, January.
    6. Kyle Lesinger & Di Tian & Courtney P. Leisner & Alvaro Sanz-Saez, 2020. "Impact of climate change on storage conditions for major agricultural commodities across the contiguous United States," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1287-1305, October.
    7. Xi Qian & Qilong Miao & Panmao Zhai & Yang Chen, 2014. "Cold–wet spells in mainland China during 1951–2011," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 931-946, November.
    8. Sanaz Moghim & Mohammad Sina Jahangir, 2022. "Reliability framework for characterizing heat wave and cold spell events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1503-1525, June.

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