IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v74y2014i3p1475-1488.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique for flood estimation for two catchments in New South Wales, Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Wilfredo Caballero
  • Ataur Rahman

Abstract

The currently adopted rainfall-based design flood estimation method in Australia, known as design event approach (DEA), has a flaw that is widely criticized by the hydrologists. The DEA is based on the assumption that a rainfall depth of a certain frequency can be transformed to a flood peak of the same frequency by adopting the ‘representative values’ of other model input variables, such as temporal patterns and losses. To overcome the limitation associated with the DEA, this paper develops stochastic model inputs to apply Monte Carlo simulation technique (MCST) for design flood estimation. This uses data from 86 pluviograph stations and six catchments from eastern New South Wales (NSW), Australia, to regionalize the distributions of various input variables (e.g., rainfall duration, inter-event duration, intensity and temporal patterns and loss and routing characteristics) to simulate thousands of flood hydrographs using a nonlinear runoff routing model. The regionalized stochastic inputs are then applied with the MCST to two catchments in eastern NSW. The results indicate that the developed MCST provide more accurate flood quantile estimates than the DEA for the two test catchments. The particular advantage of the new MCST and stochastic design input variables is that it reduces the subjectivity in the selection of model input values in flood modeling. The developed MCST can be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Wilfredo Caballero & Ataur Rahman, 2014. "Application of Monte Carlo simulation technique for flood estimation for two catchments in New South Wales, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1475-1488, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:3:p:1475-1488
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1251-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-014-1251-z
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-014-1251-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Charalambous & Ataur Rahman & Don Carroll, 2013. "Application of Monte Carlo Simulation Technique to Design Flood Estimation: A Case Study for North Johnstone River in Queensland, Australia," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4099-4111, September.
    2. Dave Deckers & Martijn Booij & Tom Rientjes & Maarten Krol, 2010. "Catchment Variability and Parameter Estimation in Multi-Objective Regionalisation of a Rainfall–Runoff Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3961-3985, November.
    3. Bruno Merz & Annegret Thieken, 2009. "Flood risk curves and uncertainty bounds," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(3), pages 437-458, December.
    4. Ralf Merz & Günter Blöschl & Günter Humer, 2008. "National flood discharge mapping in Austria," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(1), pages 53-72, July.
    5. Elias Ishak & Khaled Haddad & Mohammad Zaman & Ataur Rahman, 2011. "Scaling property of regional floods in New South Wales Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(3), pages 1155-1167, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yue Zhang & Kai Huang & Yajuan Yu & Linxiu Wu, 2020. "An uncertainty-based multivariate statistical approach to predict crop water footprint under climate change: a case study of Lake Dianchi Basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 91-110, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ayesha Rahman & Ataur Rahman & Mohammad Zaman & Khaled Haddad & Amimul Ahsan & Monzur Imteaz, 2013. "A study on selection of probability distributions for at-site flood frequency analysis in Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1803-1813, December.
    2. Klaus Schneeberger & Matthias Huttenlau & Benjamin Winter & Thomas Steinberger & Stefan Achleitner & Johann Stötter, 2019. "A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 125-139, January.
    3. B. Winter & K. Schneeberger & M. Huttenlau & J. Stötter, 2018. "Sources of uncertainty in a probabilistic flood risk model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 431-446, March.
    4. K. Aziz & Sohail Rai & A. Rahman, 2015. "Design flood estimation in ungauged catchments using genetic algorithm-based artificial neural network (GAANN) technique for Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 805-821, June.
    5. Antje Otto & Kristine Kern & Wolfgang Haupt & Peter Eckersley & Annegret H. Thieken, 2021. "Ranking local climate policy: assessing the mitigation and adaptation activities of 104 German cities," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-23, July.
    6. Jianzhong Zhou & Shuo Ouyang & Xuemin Wang & Lei Ye & Hao Wang, 2014. "Multi-Objective Parameter Calibration and Multi-Attribute Decision-Making: An Application to Conceptual Hydrological Model Calibration," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 767-783, February.
    7. O. Ionuş & M. Licurici & M. Pătroescu & S. Boengiu, 2015. "Assessment of flood-prone stripes within the Danube drainage area in the South-West Oltenia Development Region, Romania," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 69-88, February.
    8. Yus Budiyono & Jeroen Aerts & JanJaap Brinkman & Muh Marfai & Philip Ward, 2015. "Flood risk assessment for delta mega-cities: a case study of Jakarta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 389-413, January.
    9. H. Moel & J. Aerts, 2011. "Effect of uncertainty in land use, damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(1), pages 407-425, July.
    10. Jianzhu Li & Qiushuang Ma & Yu Tian & Yuming Lei & Ting Zhang & Ping Feng, 2019. "Flood scaling under nonstationarity in Daqinghe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(2), pages 675-696, September.
    11. Sawano, Shinji & Hotta, Norifumi & Tanaka, Nobuaki & Tsuboyama, Yoshio & Suzuki, Masakazu, 2015. "Development of a simple forest evapotranspiration model using a process-oriented model as a reference to parameterize data from a wide range of environmental conditions," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 309, pages 93-109.
    12. Ye Tian & Yue-Ping Xu & Xu-Jie Zhang, 2013. "Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on River High Flows through Comparative Use of GR4J, HBV and Xinanjiang Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2871-2888, June.
    13. Minglong Dai & Jianzhong Zhou & Xiang Liao, 2016. "Research on Combination Forecast Mode of Conceptual Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4483-4499, October.
    14. Ravinesh Deo & Hi-Ryong Byun & Jan Adamowski & Do-Woo Kim, 2015. "A Real-time Flood Monitoring Index Based on Daily Effective Precipitation and its Application to Brisbane and Lockyer Valley Flood Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(11), pages 4075-4093, September.
    15. Koppuravuri Ramabrahmam & Venkata Reddy Keesara & Raghavan Srinivasan & Deva Pratap & Venkataramana Sridhar, 2021. "Flow Simulation and Storage Assessment in an Ungauged Irrigation Tank Cascade System Using the SWAT Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-18, November.
    16. Yichao Xu & Zhiqiang Jiang & Yi Liu & Li Zhang & Jiahao Yang & Hairun Shu, 2023. "An Adaptive Ensemble Framework for Flood Forecasting and Its Application in a Small Watershed Using Distinct Rainfall Interpolation Methods," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 2195-2219, March.
    17. Unterberger, Christian & Hudson, Paul & Botzen, W.J. Wouter & Schroeer, Katharina & Steininger, Karl W., 2019. "Future Public Sector Flood Risk and Risk Sharing Arrangements: An Assessment for Austria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 153-163.
    18. Juliana Mendes & Rodrigo Maia, 2016. "Hydrologic Modelling Calibration for Operational Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5671-5685, December.
    19. Jun Guo & Jianzhong Zhou & Qiang Zou & Yi Liu & Lixiang Song, 2013. "A Novel Multi-Objective Shuffled Complex Differential Evolution Algorithm with Application to Hydrological Model Parameter Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2923-2946, June.
    20. C. Neuhold, 2013. "Identifying flood-prone landfills at different spatial scales," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1425-1440, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:3:p:1475-1488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.