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Sources of uncertainty in a probabilistic flood risk model

Author

Listed:
  • B. Winter

    (University of Innsbruck
    alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation)

  • K. Schneeberger

    (alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation)

  • M. Huttenlau

    (alpS - Centre for Climate Change Adaptation)

  • J. Stötter

    (University of Innsbruck)

Abstract

Flood risk models capture a variety of processes and are associated with large uncertainties. In this paper, the uncertainties due to alternative model assumptions are analysed for various components of a probabilistic flood risk model in the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). The effect of different model assumptions for five aspects is compared to a reference simulation. This includes: (I, II) the selection of two model thresholds controlling the generation of large sets of possible flood events; (III) the selection of a distribution function for the flood frequency analysis; (IV) the building representation and water level derivation for the exposure analysis and (V) the selection of an appropriate damage function. The analysis shows that each of the tested aspects has the potential to alter the modelling results considerably. The results range from a factor of 1.2 to 3, from the lowest to highest value, whereby the selection of the damage function has the largest effect on the overall modelling results.

Suggested Citation

  • B. Winter & K. Schneeberger & M. Huttenlau & J. Stötter, 2018. "Sources of uncertainty in a probabilistic flood risk model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(2), pages 431-446, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:91:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3135-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3135-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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