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Research on Combination Forecast Mode of Conceptual Hydrological Model

Author

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  • Minglong Dai

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology
    Changjiang Water Resources Commission)

  • Jianzhong Zhou

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

  • Xiang Liao

    (Huazhong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

The calibration and selection of conceptual hydrological model parameters is an important but complex task in runoff forecasting. In order to solve the calibration of conceptual hydrological model parameters, a multi-objective cultural self-adaptive electromagnetism-like mechanism algorithm (MOCSEM) is proposed in this paper. The multi-objective parameter calibration method of runoff forecasting avoids the “averaging effect” and considers both large and small runoffs hydrological features. In this paper, the self-identifying parameter combination forecasting method (SPCFM), a universality combination forecast model, is developed innovatively to improve forecasting precision by using the extreme parameters of Pareto optimal solutions. Finally, MOCSEM is combined with SPCFM to calibrate the parameters of forecasting model and forecast runoff of Leaf River. The results indicate that the proposed methods improve forecast accuracy and provide an effective approach to runoff forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Minglong Dai & Jianzhong Zhou & Xiang Liao, 2016. "Research on Combination Forecast Mode of Conceptual Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4483-4499, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1401-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1401-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jun Guo & Jianzhong Zhou & Qiang Zou & Yi Liu & Lixiang Song, 2013. "A Novel Multi-Objective Shuffled Complex Differential Evolution Algorithm with Application to Hydrological Model Parameter Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2923-2946, June.
    2. Dave Deckers & Martijn Booij & Tom Rientjes & Maarten Krol, 2010. "Catchment Variability and Parameter Estimation in Multi-Objective Regionalisation of a Rainfall–Runoff Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3961-3985, November.
    3. Jianzhong Zhou & Shuo Ouyang & Xuemin Wang & Lei Ye & Hao Wang, 2014. "Multi-Objective Parameter Calibration and Multi-Attribute Decision-Making: An Application to Conceptual Hydrological Model Calibration," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(3), pages 767-783, February.
    4. Gift Dumedah & Aaron Berg & Mark Wineberg & Robert Collier, 2010. "Selecting Model Parameter Sets from a Trade-off Surface Generated from the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-II," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(15), pages 4469-4489, December.
    5. Gift Dumedah, 2012. "Formulation of the Evolutionary-Based Data Assimilation, and its Implementation in Hydrological Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(13), pages 3853-3870, October.
    6. Alireza B. Dariane & M. M. Javadianzadeh & L. Douglas James, 2016. "Developing an Efficient Auto-Calibration Algorithm for HEC-HMS Program," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 1923-1937, April.
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