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Hydrologic Modelling Calibration for Operational Flood Forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Juliana Mendes

    (Faculty of Engineering of University of Porto)

  • Rodrigo Maia

    (Faculty of Engineering of University of Porto)

Abstract

Runoff prediction in flood forecasting depends on the use of hydrological simulation models and on the input of accurate precipitation forecasts. Reliability of predictions thus obtained hinges on proper calibration of the model. Moreover, when the model is intended to be used systematically in operational forecasting of streamflows, the calibration process must take into account the variation of the model parameters over time, namely in response to changing weather and hydrological conditions in the basin. The goal of the study was to build a process to adjust, on a daily basis, the simulation model parameters to the current hydrological conditions of the river basin, in order for the model to be run operationally for prediction of the streamflow for the next 10-days period, and, thereby, to forecast the occurrence of flood events. Towards this end, hydrological simulations using the HEC-HMS model were performed, using a 3 h period time step. The present communication focuses on the hydrological model calibration and verification processes and on the evaluation of forecasts’ accuracy. The procedure was applied to a part of the largest (full) Portuguese river basin, the Mondego river basin, corresponding to the Aguieira dam section watershed, which comprises an area of 3070 km2. Four wet periods, associated with the occurrence of flooding, were selected for the calibration and verification of the model, by adjustment of the model parameters. The results of the study aim to define the optimal calibration parameters values to model the observed streamflow for various hydro-meteorological states, thus enabling adequate prediction of flow in flooding situations and proper application of the model in operational flood forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliana Mendes & Rodrigo Maia, 2016. "Hydrologic Modelling Calibration for Operational Flood Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5671-5685, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:30:y:2016:i:15:d:10.1007_s11269-016-1509-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-016-1509-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dave Deckers & Martijn Booij & Tom Rientjes & Maarten Krol, 2010. "Catchment Variability and Parameter Estimation in Multi-Objective Regionalisation of a Rainfall–Runoff Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(14), pages 3961-3985, November.
    2. Martine Nyeko, 2015. "Hydrologic Modelling of Data Scarce Basin with SWAT Model: Capabilities and Limitations," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(1), pages 81-94, January.
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    4. Tewodros Assefa Nigussie & Abdusselam Altunkaynak, 2016. "Assessing the Hydrological Response of Ayamama Watershed from Urbanization Predicted under Various Landuse Policy Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(10), pages 3427-3441, August.
    5. T. Reshma & K. Reddy & Deva Pratap & Mehdi Ahmedi & V. Agilan, 2015. "Optimization of Calibration Parameters for an Event Based Watershed Model Using Genetic Algorithm," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4589-4606, October.
    6. Alireza B. Dariane & M. M. Javadianzadeh & L. Douglas James, 2016. "Developing an Efficient Auto-Calibration Algorithm for HEC-HMS Program," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(6), pages 1923-1937, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Rui Yan & Yanpeng Cai & Chunhui Li & Xuan Wang & Qiang Liu, 2019. "Hydrological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in a Watershed of the Loess Plateau, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, March.
    3. Suiling Wang & Zhiqiang Jiang & Hairong Zhang, 2022. "Correction of Reservoir Runoff Forecast Based on Multi-scenario Division and Multi Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5277-5296, October.

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