IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02643847.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Proportional loss functions for debris flow events

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Rheinberger

    (LERNA - Economie des Ressources Naturelles - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives)

  • Hans E. Romang

    (Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss)

  • Michael Bründl

    (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL)

Abstract

Quantitative risk assessments of debris flows and other hydrogeological hazards require the analyst to predict damage potentials. A common way to do so is by use of proportional loss functions. In this paper, we analyze a uniquely rich dataset of 132 buildings that were damaged in one of five large debris flow events in Switzerland. Using the double generalized linear model, we estimate proportional loss functions thatmay be used for various prediction purposes including hazard mapping, landscape planning, and insurance pricing. Unlike earlier analyses, we control for confounding effects of building characteristics, site specifics, and process intensities as well as for overdispersion in the data. Our results suggest that process intensity parameters are the most meaningful predictors of proportional loss sizes. Cross-validation tests suggest that the mean absolute prediction errors of our models are in the range of 11 %, underpinning the accurateness of the approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Rheinberger & Hans E. Romang & Michael Bründl, 2013. "Proportional loss functions for debris flow events," Post-Print hal-02643847, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02643847
    DOI: 10.5194/nhess-13-2147-2013
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02643847
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02643847/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5194/nhess-13-2147-2013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Raschky & Hannelore Weck-Hannemann, 2007. "Charity hazard - A real hazard to natural disaster insurance," Working Papers 2007-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    2. Sergio Sepúlveda & Cristóbal Padilla, 2008. "Rain-induced debris and mudflow triggering factors assessment in the Santiago cordilleran foothills, Central Chile," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 47(2), pages 201-215, November.
    3. M. Jakob & D. Stein & M. Ulmi, 2012. "Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 241-261, January.
    4. de Jong,Piet & Heller,Gillian Z., 2008. "Generalized Linear Models for Insurance Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521879149, October.
    5. Dieter Rickenmann, 1999. "Empirical Relationships for Debris Flows," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 19(1), pages 47-77, January.
    6. Reinhold Totschnig & Walter Sedlacek & Sven Fuchs, 2011. "A quantitative vulnerability function for fluvial sediment transport," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(2), pages 681-703, August.
    7. Jaime Bonachea & Juan Remondo & José Ramón Díaz De Terán & Alberto González‐Díez & Antonio Cendrero, 2009. "Landslide Risk Models for Decision Making," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(11), pages 1629-1643, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aditi Singh & D. P. Kanungo & Shilpa Pal, 2019. "Physical vulnerability assessment of buildings exposed to landslides in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 753-790, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hyo-sub Kang & Yun-tae Kim, 2016. "The physical vulnerability of different types of building structure to debris flow events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1475-1493, February.
    2. Hualin Cheng & Zhiyi Chen & Yu Huang, 2022. "Quantitative physical model of vulnerability of buildings to urban flow slides in construction solid waste landfills: a case study of the 2015 Shenzhen flow slide," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1567-1587, June.
    3. Sven Fuchs & Margreth Keiler & Sergey Sokratov & Alexander Shnyparkov, 2013. "Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1217-1241, September.
    4. Aditi Singh & D. P. Kanungo & Shilpa Pal, 2019. "Physical vulnerability assessment of buildings exposed to landslides in India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(2), pages 753-790, March.
    5. M. Jakob & D. Stein & M. Ulmi, 2012. "Vulnerability of buildings to debris flow impact," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(2), pages 241-261, January.
    6. Hyo-sub Kang & Yun-tae Kim, 2016. "The physical vulnerability of different types of building structure to debris flow events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1475-1493, February.
    7. Konstantinos Karagiorgos & Micha Heiser & Thomas Thaler & Johannes Hübl & Sven Fuchs, 2016. "Micro-sized enterprises: vulnerability to flash floods," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(2), pages 1091-1107, November.
    8. Mudassir Ali Khan & Zahiraniza Mustaffa & Indra Sati Hamonangan Harahap & Muhammad Bello Ibrahim & Mohamed Ezzat Al-Atroush, 2022. "Assessment of Physical Vulnerability and Uncertainties for Debris Flow Hazard: A Review concerning Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, December.
    9. F. Gauthier & D. Germain & B. Hétu, 2017. "Logistic models as a forecasting tool for snow avalanches in a cold maritime climate: northern Gaspésie, Québec, Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(1), pages 201-232, October.
    10. Chenglong Ye & Lin Zhang & Mingxuan Han & Yanjia Yu & Bingxin Zhao & Yuhong Yang, 2022. "Combining Predictions of Auto Insurance Claims," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15, April.
    11. Jef Mot & Michael Faure, 2019. "Public authority liability and the cost of disasters," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 44(4), pages 760-783, October.
    12. Wen-Chun Lo & Ting-Chi Tsao & Chih-Hao Hsu, 2012. "Building vulnerability to debris flows in Taiwan: a preliminary study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(3), pages 2107-2128, December.
    13. Nisar Ali Shah & Muhammad Shafique & Muhammad Ishfaq & Kamil Faisal & Mark Van der Meijde, 2023. "Integrated Approach for Landslide Risk Assessment Using Geoinformation Tools and Field Data in Hindukush Mountain Ranges, Northern Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    14. Davlasheridze, Meri & Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Allen Klaiber, H., 2017. "The effects of adaptation measures on hurricane induced property losses: Which FEMA investments have the highest returns?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 93-114.
    15. Michalis Diakakis & Spyridon Mavroulis & Emmanuel Vassilakis & Vassiliki Chalvatzi, 2023. "Exploring the Application of a Debris Flow Likelihood Regression Model in Mediterranean Post-Fire Environments, Using Field Observations-Based Validation," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, February.
    16. Gowhar Meraj & Shakil Romshoo & A. Yousuf & Sadaff Altaf & Farrukh Altaf, 2015. "Assessing the influence of watershed characteristics on the flood vulnerability of Jhelum basin in Kashmir Himalaya," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 153-175, May.
    17. Qimeng Pan & Lysa Porth & Hong Li, 2022. "Assessing the Effectiveness of the Actuaries Climate Index for Estimating the Impact of Extreme Weather on Crop Yield and Insurance Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, June.
    18. Jiří Valecký, . "Calculation of Solvency Capital Requirements for Non-life Underwriting Risk Using Generalized Linear Models," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-17.
    19. Tatyana Deryugina & Barrett Kirwan, 2018. "Does The Samaritan'S Dilemma Matter? Evidence From U.S. Agriculture," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 983-1006, April.
    20. Becchetti, Leonardo & Castriota, Stefano & Conzo, Pierluigi, 2017. "Disaster, Aid, and Preferences: The Long-run Impact of the Tsunami on Giving in Sri Lanka," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 157-173.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02643847. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.