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Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China

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  • Yaolong Liu
  • Zhenlou Chen
  • Jun Wang
  • Beibei Hu
  • Mingwu Ye
  • Shiyuan Xu

Abstract

Based on the analysis and calculation of the hazard intensity of typhoon rainstorms and floods as well as the vulnerability of flood receptors and the possibility of great losses, risk scenarios are proposed and presented in Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China, using the Pearson-III model and ArcGIS spatial analyst tools. Results indicate that the elements of risk scenarios include time–space scenarios, disaster scenarios, and man-made scenarios. Ten-year and 100-year typhoon rainstorms and flood hazard areas are mainly concentrated in the coastal areas of Wenzhou City. The average rainfall across a 100-year frequency is 450 mm. The extreme water depth of a 100-year flood is 600 mm. High-vulnerability areas are located in Yueqing, Pingyang, Cangnan, and Wencheng counties. The average loss rate of a 100-year flood is more than 50%. The greatest possible loss of floods shows an obvious concentration-diffusion situation. There is an area of about 20–25% flood loss of 6–24 million Yuan RMB/km 2 in the Lucheng, Longwan and Ouhai districts. The average loss of a 100-year flood is 12 million Yuan RMB/km 2 , and extreme loss reaches 49.33 million Yuan RMB/km 2 . The classification of risk scenario may be used for the choice of risk response priorities. For the next 50 years, the 10-year typhoon rainstorm-flood disaster is the biggest risk scenario faced by most regions of Wenzhou City. For the Yueqing, Ruian, and Ouhai districts, it is best to cope with a 100-year disaster risk scenario and the accompanying losses. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Yaolong Liu & Zhenlou Chen & Jun Wang & Beibei Hu & Mingwu Ye & Shiyuan Xu, 2012. "Large-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Wenzhou City, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1287-1298, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:60:y:2012:i:3:p:1287-1298
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-011-9909-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yong Shi & Chun Shi & Shi-Yuan Xu & A-Li Sun & Jun Wang, 2010. "Exposure assessment of rainstorm waterlogging on old-style residences in Shanghai based on scenario simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 53(2), pages 259-272, May.
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    3. Shrestha, Ram M. & Malla, Sunil & Liyanage, Migara H., 2007. "Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3179-3193, June.
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    2. Shiqiang Du & Anton Van Rompaey & Peijun Shi & Jing’ai Wang, 2015. "A dual effect of urban expansion on flood risk in the Pearl River Delta (China) revealed by land-use scenarios and direct runoff simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 111-128, May.
    3. Yaolong Liu & Guorui Feng & Ye Xue & Huaming Zhang & Ruoguang Wang, 2015. "Small-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study from the town of Shuitou, Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(3), pages 2167-2183, February.
    4. Ruiling Sun & Ge Gao & Zaiwu Gong & Jie Wu, 2020. "A review of risk analysis methods for natural disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 571-593, January.
    5. Mengya Li & Jun Wang & Xiaojing Sun, 2016. "Scenario-based risk framework selection and assessment model development for natural disasters: a case study of typhoon storm surges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2037-2054, February.
    6. Jie Yin & Zhane Yin & Shiyuan Xu, 2013. "Composite risk assessment of typhoon-induced disaster for China’s coastal area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 69(3), pages 1423-1434, December.
    7. Jun Wang & Zhenlou Chen & Shiyuan Xu & Beibei Hu, 2013. "Medium-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1205-1220, March.
    8. Xinliang Xu & Daowei Sun & Tengjiao Guo, 2015. "A systemic analysis of typhoon risk across China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(1), pages 461-477, May.
    9. Mengya Li & Jun Wang & Xiaojing Sun, 2016. "Scenario-based risk framework selection and assessment model development for natural disasters: a case study of typhoon storm surges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 2037-2054, February.

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