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Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

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  • Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha
  • Limmeechokchai, Bundit

Abstract

The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230Mt-CO2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO2. All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha & Limmeechokchai, Bundit, 2015. "Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 199-214.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:81:y:2015:i:c:p:199-214
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.10.005
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    3. Debalke, Negash Mulatu, 2023. "The Role of Electric Vehicles in Road Transport Decarbonization: Exploring Environmental Impacts and Policy Implications through a Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Approaches," MPRA Paper 118596, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2023.
    4. Rith, Monorom & Fillone, Alexis M. & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel M., 2020. "Energy and environmental benefits and policy implications for private passenger vehicles in an emerging metropolis of Southeast Asia – A case study of Metro Manila," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    5. Jing Li & Kevin Lo & Pingyu Zhang & Meng Guo, 2016. "Consumer Travel Behaviors and Transport Carbon Emissions: A Comparative Study of Commercial Centers in Shenyang, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-13, September.
    6. Dioha, Michael O. & Kumar, Atul, 2020. "Sustainable energy pathways for land transport in Nigeria," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Zhang, Dongyu & Liu, Gengyuan & Chen, Caocao & Zhang, Yan & Hao, Yan & Casazza, Marco, 2019. "Medium-to-long-term coupled strategies for energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Beijing (China)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 350-360.
    8. Prasad, Ravita D. & Raturi, Atul, 2018. "Low-carbon measures for Fiji's land transport energy system," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 132-147.
    9. Xu, Bin & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Differences in regional emissions in China's transport sector: Determinants and reduction strategies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 459-470.
    10. Jing-Ming Chen & Biying Yu & Yi-Ming Wei, 2019. "CO2 emissions accounting for the chemical industry: an empirical analysis for China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(3), pages 1327-1343, December.
    11. Lehua Bi & Shaorui Zhou & Jianjie Ke & Xiaoming Song, 2023. "Knowledge-Mapping Analysis of Urban Sustainable Transportation Using CiteSpace," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-29, January.
    12. Chunark, Puttipong & Limmeechokchai, Bundit & Fujimori, Shinichiro & Masui, Toshihiko, 2017. "Renewable energy achievements in CO2 mitigation in Thailand's NDCs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 1294-1305.
    13. Changzheng Zhu & Dawei Gao, 2019. "A Research on the Factors Influencing Carbon Emission of Transportation Industry in “the Belt and Road Initiative” Countries Based on Panel Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, June.
    14. Elham Heidari & Sona Bikdeli & Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar, 2023. "A dynamic model for CO2 emissions induced by urban transportation during 2005–2030, a case study of Mashhad, Iran," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 4217-4236, May.
    15. Kannika Duangnate & James W. Mjelde, 2022. "The Role of Pre-Commitments and Engle Curves in Thailand’s Aggregate Energy Demand System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-16, February.

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