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A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment – part 1: basic concepts

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  • Donald Resio
  • Jennifer Irish
  • Mary Cialone

Abstract

This paper reviews historical methods for estimating surge hazards and concludes that the class of solutions produced with Joint Probability Method (JPM) solutions provides a much more stable estimate of hazard levels than alternative methods. We proceed to describe changes in our understanding of the winds in hurricanes approaching a coast and the physics of surge generation that have required recent modifications to procedures utilized in earlier JPM studies. Of critical importance to the accuracy of hazard estimates is the ability to maintain a high level of fidelity in the numerical simulations while allowing for a sufficient number of simulations to populate the joint probability matrices for the surges. To accomplish this, it is important to maximize the information content in the sample storm set to be simulated. This paper introduces the fundamentals of a method based on the functional specification of the surge response for this purpose, along with an example of its application in the New Orleans area. A companion paper in this special issue (Irish et al. 2009 ) provides details of the portion of this new method related to interpolating/extrapolating along spatial dimensions. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Suggested Citation

  • Donald Resio & Jennifer Irish & Mary Cialone, 2009. "A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment – part 1: basic concepts," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 163-182, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:51:y:2009:i:1:p:163-182
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9379-y
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    1. Jennifer Irish & Donald Resio & Mary Cialone, 2009. "A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes of response functions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 183-205, October.
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    1. Youn Song & Jennifer Irish & Ikpoto Udoh, 2012. "Regional attributes of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1475-1490, November.
    2. Xiang Fu & Jingming Hou & Qiuuxing Liu & Mingjie Li & Sendong Liang, 2023. "Evaluation of surge hazard based on a storm surge hazard indicator along the mainland coast of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3481-3493, April.
    3. Aikaterini P. Kyprioti & Alexandros A. Taflanidis & Matthew Plumlee & Taylor G. Asher & Elaine Spiller & Richard A. Luettich & Brian Blanton & Tracy L. Kijewski-Correa & Andrew Kennedy & Lauren Schmie, 2021. "Improvements in storm surge surrogate modeling for synthetic storm parameterization, node condition classification and implementation to small size databases," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1349-1386, November.
    4. Gaofeng Jia & Alexandros A. Taflanidis & Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo & Jeffrey A. Melby & Andrew B. Kennedy & Jane M. Smith, 2016. "Surrogate modeling for peak or time-dependent storm surge prediction over an extended coastal region using an existing database of synthetic storms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 909-938, March.
    5. Grant Hutchings & Bruno Sansó & James Gattiker & Devin Francom & Donatella Pasqualini, 2023. "Comparing emulation methods for a high‐resolution storm surge model," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), May.
    6. Jize Zhang & Alexandros A. Taflanidis & Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo & Jeffrey A. Melby & Fatimata Diop, 2018. "Advances in surrogate modeling for storm surge prediction: storm selection and addressing characteristics related to climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(3), pages 1225-1253, December.
    7. Fanglin Zhang & Philip M. Orton & Malgosia Madajewicz & Sarath Chandra K. Jagupilla & Roham Bakhtyar, 2020. "Mortality during Hurricane Sandy: the effects of waterfront flood protection on Staten Island, New York," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 57-85, August.
    8. Gaofeng Jia & Alexandros Taflanidis & Norberto Nadal-Caraballo & Jeffrey Melby & Andrew Kennedy & Jane Smith, 2016. "Surrogate modeling for peak or time-dependent storm surge prediction over an extended coastal region using an existing database of synthetic storms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 909-938, March.
    9. Donald Resio & Jennifer Irish & Joannes Westerink & Nancy Powell, 2013. "The effect of uncertainty on estimates of hurricane surge hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1443-1459, April.
    10. Jennifer Irish & Donald Resio & Mary Cialone, 2009. "A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes of response functions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 183-205, October.
    11. Matt Lewis & Kevin Horsburgh & Paul Bates, 2014. "Bay of Bengal cyclone extreme water level estimate uncertainty," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 983-996, June.
    12. Borja G Reguero & Michael W Beck & David N Bresch & Juliano Calil & Imen Meliane, 2018. "Comparing the cost effectiveness of nature-based and coastal adaptation: A case study from the Gulf Coast of the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(4), pages 1-24, April.
    13. Donald T. Resio & Nancy Powell & Mary Cialone & Himangshu S. Das & Joannes J. Westerink, 2017. "Quantifying impacts of forecast uncertainties on predicted storm surges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1423-1449, September.
    14. Eric Geist & Uri Brink & Matthew Gove, 2014. "A framework for the probabilistic analysis of meteotsunamis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(1), pages 123-142, October.
    15. Chih-Hung Hsu & Francisco Olivera & Jennifer L. Irish, 2018. "A hurricane surge risk assessment framework using the joint probability method and surge response functions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 7-28, April.
    16. Antony Joseph & R. Prabhudesai & Prakash Mehra & V. Sanil Kumar & K. Radhakrishnan & Vijay Kumar & K. Ashok Kumar & Yogesh Agarwadekar & U. Bhat & Ryan Luis & Pradhan Rivankar & Blossom Viegas, 2011. "Response of west Indian coastal regions and Kavaratti lagoon to the November-2009 tropical cyclone Phyan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 57(2), pages 293-312, May.
    17. Nick Taylor & Jennifer Irish & Ikpoto Udoh & Matthew Bilskie & Scott Hagen, 2015. "Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1103-1123, June.
    18. Jung, WoongHee & Taflanidis, Alexandros A. & Kyprioti, Aikaterini P. & Zhang, Jize, 2024. "Adaptive multi-fidelity Monte Carlo for real-time probabilistic storm surge predictions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    19. Alexandros Taflanidis & Gaofeng Jia & Andrew Kennedy & Jane Smith, 2013. "Implementation/optimization of moving least squares response surfaces for approximation of hurricane/storm surge and wave responses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 955-983, March.
    20. J. Rohmer & S. Lecacheux & R. Pedreros & H. Quetelard & F. Bonnardot & D. Idier, 2016. "Dynamic parameter sensitivity in numerical modelling of cyclone-induced waves: a multi-look approach using advanced meta-modelling techniques," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(3), pages 1765-1792, December.

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