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The effects of natural structure on estimated tropical cyclone surge extremes

Author

Listed:
  • Donald T. Resio

    (University of North Florida)

  • Taylor G. Asher

    (University of North Carolina)

  • Jennifer L. Irish

    (Virginia Tech)

Abstract

The past 12 years have seen significant steps forward in the science and practice of coastal flood analysis. This paper aims to recount and critically assess these advances, while helping identify next steps for the field. This paper then focuses on a key problem, connecting the probabilistic characterization of flood hazards to their physical mechanisms. Our investigation into the effects of natural structure on the probabilities of storm surges shows that several different types of spatial-, temporal-, and process-related organizations affect key assumptions made in many of the methods used to estimate these probabilities. Following a brief introduction to general historical methods, we analyze the two joint probability methods used in most tropical cyclone hazard and risk studies today: the surface response function and Bayesian quadrature. A major difference between these two methods is that the response function creates continuous surfaces, which can be interpolated or extrapolated on a fine scale if necessary, and the Bayesian quadrature optimizes a set of probability masses, which cannot be directly interpolated or extrapolated. Several examples are given here showing significant impacts related to natural structure that should not be neglected in hazard and risk assessment for tropical cyclones including: (1) differences between omnidirectional sampling and directional-dependent sampling of storms in near coastal areas; (2) the impact of surge probability discontinuities on the treatment of epistemic uncertainty; (3) the ability to reduce aleatory uncertainty when sampling over larger spatial domains; and (4) the need to quantify trade-offs between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in long-term stochastic sampling.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald T. Resio & Taylor G. Asher & Jennifer L. Irish, 2017. "The effects of natural structure on estimated tropical cyclone surge extremes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1609-1637, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2935-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2935-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nick Taylor & Jennifer Irish & Ikpoto Udoh & Matthew Bilskie & Scott Hagen, 2015. "Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1103-1123, June.
    2. Donald T. Resio & Nancy Powell & Mary Cialone & Himangshu S. Das & Joannes J. Westerink, 2017. "Quantifying impacts of forecast uncertainties on predicted storm surges," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1423-1449, September.
    3. Donald Resio & Jennifer Irish & Joannes Westerink & Nancy Powell, 2013. "The effect of uncertainty on estimates of hurricane surge hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1443-1459, April.
    4. Jennifer Irish & Donald Resio & Mary Cialone, 2009. "A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes of response functions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 183-205, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kun Yang & Vladimir Paramygin & Y. Peter Sheng, 2019. "An objective and efficient method for estimating probabilistic coastal inundation hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 1105-1130, November.
    2. Grant Hutchings & Bruno Sansó & James Gattiker & Devin Francom & Donatella Pasqualini, 2023. "Comparing emulation methods for a high‐resolution storm surge model," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), May.
    3. Jize Zhang & Alexandros A. Taflanidis & Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo & Jeffrey A. Melby & Fatimata Diop, 2018. "Advances in surrogate modeling for storm surge prediction: storm selection and addressing characteristics related to climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 94(3), pages 1225-1253, December.
    4. Chih-Hung Hsu & Francisco Olivera & Jennifer L. Irish, 2018. "A hurricane surge risk assessment framework using the joint probability method and surge response functions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 7-28, April.

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