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Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays

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  • Nick Taylor
  • Jennifer Irish
  • Ikpoto Udoh
  • Matthew Bilskie
  • Scott Hagen

Abstract

Reliable and robust methods of extreme value-based hurricane surge prediction, such as the joint probability method (JPM), are critical in the coastal engineering profession. The JPM has become the preferred surge hazard assessment method in the USA; however, it has a high computational cost: One location can require hundreds of simulated storms and more than ten thousand computational hours to complete. Optimal sampling methods that use physics-based surge response functions (SRFs) can reduce the required number of simulations. This study extends the development of SRFs to bay interior locations at Panama City, Florida. Mean SRF root-mean-square errors for open coast and bay interior locations were 0.34 and 0.37 m, respectively, comparable with ADCIRC errors. Average uncertainty increases from open coast, and bay SRFs were 10 and 12 %, respectively. Long-term climate trends, such as rising sea levels, introduce nonstationarity into the simulated and historical surge datasets. A common approach to estimating total flood elevations is to take the sum of projected sea-level rise (SLR) and present day surge (static approach); however, this does not account for dynamic SLR effects on surge generation. This study demonstrates that SLR has a significant dynamic effect on surge in the Panama City area, and that total flood elevations, with respect to changes in SLR, are poorly characterized as static increases. A simple adjustment relating total flood elevation to present day conditions is proposed. Uncertainty contributions from these SLR adjustments are shown to be reasonable for surge hazard assessments. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Nick Taylor & Jennifer Irish & Ikpoto Udoh & Matthew Bilskie & Scott Hagen, 2015. "Development and uncertainty quantification of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment in coastal bays," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1103-1123, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:2:p:1103-1123
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1646-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Davina Passeri & Scott Hagen & Matthew Bilskie & Stephen Medeiros, 2015. "On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1599-1617, January.
    2. Youn Song & Jennifer Irish & Ikpoto Udoh, 2012. "Regional attributes of hurricane surge response functions for hazard assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(2), pages 1475-1490, November.
    3. Jonathan D. Woodruff & Jennifer L. Irish & Suzana J. Camargo, 2013. "Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise," Nature, Nature, vol. 504(7478), pages 44-52, December.
    4. Donald Resio & Jennifer Irish & Joannes Westerink & Nancy Powell, 2013. "The effect of uncertainty on estimates of hurricane surge hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1443-1459, April.
    5. Jennifer Irish & Donald Resio & Mary Cialone, 2009. "A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes of response functions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 183-205, October.
    6. Donald Resio & Jennifer Irish & Mary Cialone, 2009. "A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment – part 1: basic concepts," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 163-182, October.
    7. Mir Mousavi & Jennifer Irish & Ashley Frey & Francisco Olivera & Billy Edge, 2011. "Global warming and hurricanes: the potential impact of hurricane intensification and sea level rise on coastal flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 575-597, February.
    8. Ning Lin & Kerry Emanuel & Michael Oppenheimer & Erik Vanmarcke, 2012. "Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 462-467, June.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gaofeng Jia & Alexandros A. Taflanidis & Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo & Jeffrey A. Melby & Andrew B. Kennedy & Jane M. Smith, 2016. "Surrogate modeling for peak or time-dependent storm surge prediction over an extended coastal region using an existing database of synthetic storms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 909-938, March.
    3. A. T. Ismail-Zadeh & S. L. Cutter & K. Takeuchi & D. Paton, 2017. "Forging a paradigm shift in disaster science," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(2), pages 969-988, March.
    4. Kun Yang & Vladimir Paramygin & Y. Peter Sheng, 2019. "An objective and efficient method for estimating probabilistic coastal inundation hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 1105-1130, November.
    5. Donald T. Resio & Taylor G. Asher & Jennifer L. Irish, 2017. "The effects of natural structure on estimated tropical cyclone surge extremes," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1609-1637, September.
    6. S. M. Smallegan & J. L. Irish & A. R. Dongeren, 2017. "Developed barrier island adaptation strategies to hurricane forcing under rising sea levels," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 173-184, July.
    7. Gaofeng Jia & Alexandros Taflanidis & Norberto Nadal-Caraballo & Jeffrey Melby & Andrew Kennedy & Jane Smith, 2016. "Surrogate modeling for peak or time-dependent storm surge prediction over an extended coastal region using an existing database of synthetic storms," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 909-938, March.
    8. Bukvic, A. & Mitchell, A. & Shao, Y. & Irish, J.L., 2023. "Spatiotemporal implications of flooding on relocation risk in rural and urban coastal municipalities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Chih-Hung Hsu & Francisco Olivera & Jennifer L. Irish, 2018. "A hurricane surge risk assessment framework using the joint probability method and surge response functions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 91(1), pages 7-28, April.

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